Gdmfx - Daily News

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FOREX NEWS: FED ANNOUNCES RATES, US DOLLAR POISED FOR BREAKOUTS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Movement was bullish yesterday ahead of the U.S. Consumer survey but a better value posted by this indicator, fuelled the US Dollar and created a bounce at resistance.



Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1025 were touched yesterday but the bulls ran out of steam and now rejection is clearly present. This means that we are likely to see another attempt to break the support at 1.0960 but today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the Fed rate announcement.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders come out, expected to show a change of -1.1% compared to the previous -2.3%. Goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years are considered “durable” and more orders for such goods usually suggest that economic activity is picking up and this often strengthens the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT, the most important event of the week is scheduled: the Fed rate announcement and the FOMC Rate Statement. The current rate is <0.50% and this is not expected to change today but we will probably see increased volatility nonetheless; also the Rate Statement is likely to contain hints about future rate changes and this is another reason for strong movement.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by major news releases yesterday but price action was mostly bullish before the release of the U.S. survey which brought the pair slightly lower.



Technical Outlook

Price bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but movement is still slow and without clear direction. We maintain our bearish bias as long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA but we don’t exclude a move into 1.3280 if the moving average is broken. The fundamental side will be the main market mover today.

Fundamental Outlook

Before the major U.S. announcement, the British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and expected to show a change of 0.5% from the previous 0.4%. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance, thus higher values usually strengthen the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT.

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FOREX NEWS: FED KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED AS EXPECTED, US DOLLAR MOMENTARILY WEAKENS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Price movement was slow ahead of the Fed release and surprisingly, the rate announcement did not create high volatility. The Fed decided to maintain the rate at <0.50% but some hints were offered that a September hike is on the table.



Technical Outlook

At the release time the pair initially dropped to re-test 1.0960 but then soon climbed into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is not necessarily a sign that price will continue to move upwards but if the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and the resistance at 1.1025 will be broken, we expect more buyers to join in and to take price higher. As long as this resistance zone is intact, we maintain our bearish bias, anticipating a break of 1.0960.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:00 pm GMT, Germany will announce their Preliminary version of the Consumer Price Index. This is considered the main gauge of inflation and because the German economy is an important pillar of the Euro Zone economy, the CPI will have a strong impact on the Euro. The expected change is 0.2% (previous 0.1%) and higher numbers usually strengthen the single currency.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair continued its sideways movement for most of yesterday but once the Fed announced the rate decision, price broke above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

The break of the 50 EMA seen yesterday is likely to extend into 1.3280, but once this target is reached, we expect the bears to take back control or at least try to. Price is currently trapped between 1.3070 and 1.3280 and until one of them is broken, we consider price in a range, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major economic releases for today, thus the main market mover will be the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO TESTS RESISTANCE, POUND STILL IN A RANGE AHEAD OF U.S. GDP


EUR/USD

Forex News: Inflation in Germany improved slightly as shown by yesterday’s Consumer Price Index that posted a change of 0.3% (forecast 0.2%). The pair continued the bullish impulse started a day ago but stopped around 1.1100.



Technical Outlook

Price tested the resistance at 1.1100 but it seems like the bulls are running out of steam, so we are likely to see a bounce into lower territory. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both overbought and this increases the chance of a move south, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average as target but a clear break above 1.1100 will probably take the pair into 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a big increase of 2.6% from the previous 1.1%. Out of the three versions of the GDP (Advance, Preliminary and Final), this is the first one and tends to have the strongest impact, with higher numbers strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound failed to move into 1.3280 and instead reversed, erasing most of the previous gains and confirming the fact that until the channel is broken, the par is still in range mode.



Technical Outlook

The pair is trapped inside the horizontal channel created by 1.3280 resistance and 1.3070 support. This is a wide range in terms of pips but considering the pair’s latest behaviour, it’s still a relatively tight channel and usually, when tight channels are broken, price travels a considerable distance in the direction of the break. Until that happens, our view is neutral and we consider that direction will be decided by the economic indicators scheduled for release today and during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product will be today’s main market mover for the pair because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic indicators.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: EURO GAINS AGAINST THE US DOLLAR, POUND STILL HESITANT AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING DATA


EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the US Dollar weakened against the Euro and the bulls made a clear break of resistance. This was mostly generated by a disappointing reading posted by the Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product: anticipated 2.6%, actual 1.2%.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1150, which acted as strong resistance in the past, is now clearly broken and may turn into support if price returns to test it. Already some rejection is seen around 1.1180 and the oscillators are overbought, so we may see a 30 pip drop into 1.1150 but the short term bias is bullish and price will probably continue towards 1.1240. This view will be strengthened if 1.1150 becomes support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 53.1, almost identical to the previous 53.2. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector that asks respondents to give their opinions on overall business conditions and health of the said sector; usually, higher numbers bring strength to the dollar but the impact is not always substantial.


GBP/USD

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average Friday and even tested 1.3280 resistance on the back of a worse than expected U.S. GDP but a break did not occur.



Technical Outlook

Although the latest impulse is bullish and the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the picture is blurry until we will see a break of the horizontal channel created by 1.3280 resistance and 1.3070 support. For today, we expect another touch of the moving average and if price moves below it, a touch of 1.3070 zone is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released at 8:30 am GMT. Just like the U.S. indicator with the same name, this survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers and usually, higher numbers than the forecast 49.1 generate strength for the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FIGHTS BACK AS BOTH PAIRS BOUNCE AT RESISTANCE


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a very slow and slightly bearish session yesterday, without threatening resistance or support. The U.S. Manufacturing data came out close to analysts’ expectations thus the event did not create strong movement.



Technical Outlook

The pair is now headed towards 1.1150, with the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index just exiting overbought territory, heading down. This suggests that if 1.1150 cannot reject price higher and a break happens early in the day, we will see a touch of 1.1100. On the other hand, if 1.1150 turns into support and the pair bounces off of it, we expect a break of 1.1186 and a consequent move into 1.1240 during the next days.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar lacks major events for the Euro and US Dollar, a thing that may generate another slow and ranging trading session.


GBP/USD

British manufacturing data disappointed yesterday but the impact on the Pound wasn’t tremendous. The pair dropped lower after a bounce at 1.3280.



Technical Outlook

Price action stopped at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but it also bounced at 1.3280 resistance. This shows that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side and that the pair is still in a ranging environment. Usually when price is inside a horizontal channel, it bounces from side to side so if the 50 EMA is breached, we expect a move into 1.3070.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the British PMI series continues with the release of the Construction PMI, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 44.2 (previous 46.0). This survey of purchasing managers acts as a leading indicator of economic health and can strengthen the Pound if it shows a better reading than analysts’ forecast. Usually the impact is not strong but this can change if the actual number differs substantially from expectations.

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FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA: BOOST OR BUST?


EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls continued their assault yesterday and the US Dollar lost the short term battle as the resistance at 1.1180 was broken.



Technical Outlook

Despite the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic being overbought, the pair continued higher after a small retracement and broke 1.1186 decisively. The bullish run started at 1.0960 looks now overextended but we believe it will reach the zone around 1.1240 and there we expect a deeper retracement or possibly even a reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look into U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report tracks changes in the number of employed people during the previous month but does not include the farming sector and government jobs. It is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released 2 days after but still, higher numbers than the anticipated 171K can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound finally broke out of the horizontal channel that confined it for the last period and the pair travelled more than 150 pips north, generating a clearly bullish session.



Technical Outlook

After another bounce on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair is finally out of the horizontal channel created between 1.3070 support and 1.3280 resistance. Usually after a breakout, price continues in the initial direction but all that remains to be seen is whether the break is a true one or not. If price doesn’t return inside the horizontal channel, we will likely see a touch of 1.3480, otherwise the moving average is the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the last British PMI in this week’s series is released. This one is focused on the Services sector and is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the health of said sector. The anticipated number is 47.4, same as previous and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND UNDER FIRE: RATE CUT EXPECTED


EUR/USD

Forex News: The bullish attack on resistance was stopped yesterday by the US Dollar that made a comeback, aided by a slightly better than anticipated reading posted by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.



Technical Outlook

Price action came in close vicinity of 1.1240 resistance but the move was already overextended and as we expected, a bearish retracement has begun. The overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index contributed to the drop and now we expect the pair to touch 1.1150 and probably the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Although we favor short term moves south, the pair is in a bullish environment as long as it remains above the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both the Euro and US Dollar so the technical aspect will be the main market mover.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar erased yesterday some of the losses incurred earlier but the pair remained above 1.3280 although the employment situation in the United States has improved.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the bears are trying to move the pair back below 1.3280; the contributing factors are the position of the two oscillators, which have reached overbought, and the fact that the US Dollar was boosted by optimistic jobs data. However, today’s price direction will be mainly affected by BOE’s decision regarding the interest rate, so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their rate decision, will release a Monetary Policy Summary and also a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes on whether to cut or hold the rate. Most analysts anticipate a rate cut today, from the current 0.50% to 0.25% and if this comes true, the Pound will likely weaken against its counterparts. Even if the rate stays the same, we expect high volatility but if the BOE decides to cut it, we recommend extreme caution.

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FOREX NEWS: CLOSING THE WEEK WITH A BANG: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair returned below 1.1150 and re-tested the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, completing a predicted bearish retracement.



Technical Outlook

Currently the bears are struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but rejection is clearly seen. A move back above 1.1150 would mean that yesterday’s behaviour was just a retracement in a bullish environment, but a break of the EMA will make the short term bias bearish; however, today’s technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamental and direction will be decided by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. report of the week comes out: the Non-Farm Employment Change (or Non-Farm Payrolls). A big decrease is anticipated, from the previous 287K to 180K and if the actual number is lower than the forecast, the US Dollar is likely to weaken. A figure above forecast would show increased economic activity and thus will probably strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to cut the interest rate from 0.50% to 0.25% as it was anticipated and this generated a huge drop that took price close to support.



Technical Outlook

The drop seen yesterday is attributed to the rate cut and we will probably see more downside movement. The first target is the support at 1.3070 but we expect slight retracements to the upside, possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Just like in the case of the EUR/USD, we expect the fundamental aspect to decide today’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the U.S. jobs data will hold today’s headlines and will generate increased volatility.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: POUND TRADES BELOW SUPPORT, EURO LOSES GROUND AGAINST THE US DOLLAR


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved slowly yesterday, which was expected after a strong drop and due to the lack of economic indicator releases. We had a small retracement but price remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



Technical Outlook

Price climbed to re-test the level at 1.1100 and it successfully did so, as seen from the bounce at this level. Now we can consider it resistance and expect to reject price in the future as well. For today we anticipate moves closer to 1.1025 and we base this assumption on the fact that the effects of the NFP will probably extend throughout this week; as long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA and below 1.1100, the technical agrees with the fundamental and the bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another slow day for economic indicator releases so price direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair remained close to 1.3070 for most of the day and no major developments took place yesterday. It is worth noting that support doesn’t seem to reject bearish price action anymore.



Technical Outlook

Price has moved slowly below 1.3070 support and it looks like the bears will win the battle for the horizontal channel. If the pair remains below 1.3070, we expect it to move closer to 1.2880 during the days to come but the oversold position of the Stochastic might generate some bullish reaction; however, our bias is bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out, showing changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. Higher readings than the anticipated 0.0% (previous -0.5%) usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is often limited if the actual number matches or comes very close to analysts’ forecast.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO MAKES A SURPRISING COMEBACK AS THE POUND DIPS LOWER


EUR/USD

Forex News: After a period of calmness and sideways movement, the Euro jumped above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and erased some of the previous US Dollar gains, generating a bullish session yesterday.



Technical Outlook

The current climb is likely to be short lived and followed by a drop into 1.1025 as long as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is not clearly broken. If the moving average will be broken, the next destination is 1.1150 and this will also mean that the NFP gains will be completely erased but we still favour the short side as long as the pair is trading below 1.1150 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another slow economic day ahead, with the only notable indicator being the JOLTS Job Openings, released at 2:00 pm GMT. As its name suggests, the indicator shows the number of job openings in the United States and higher numbers than the forecast 5.52M can strengthen the US Dollar but keep in mind that the impact is often very low.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s main event was the release of the British Manufacturing Production, which disappointed by showing a -0.3% change, and the Pound reacted by dropping further below support.



Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3070 is now clear so we can consider that the bears have successfully taken the pair out of the horizontal channel. This means that we might be headed for the next target, located at 1.2880 but we don’t exclude bullish retracements (both oscillators are oversold). However, as long as the pair is trading below 1.3070 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. indicator mentioned earlier will be the only notable event of the day as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases.

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FOREX NEWS: BULLS REACH RESISTANCE, US DOLLAR PREPARES A COMEBACK


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair ran sharply upwards and nullified the US Dollar gains generated by last week’s NFP release. Immediate resistance was easily broken and the session was dominated by the bulls.



Technical Outlook

The pair has now reached 1.1186 resistance and this also coincides with a bearish trend line seen on the chart above. The Relative Strength Index is just touching its 70 level, suggesting an overbought condition and the Stochastic is starting to cross downwards. All this suggests that a move lower will follow and if this comes true, we expect an encounter with 1.1150 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene remains quiet today, and the only notable release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Unemployment Claims. This indicator shows changes in the number of people without jobs that have applied for social help but it is released every week and the impact is not always strong; the expected number is 272K and numbers above this can weaken the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Price retraced into the previous support but it remained in a range once it reached it and overall yesterday’s trading session was uneventful.



Technical Outlook

After an oversold condition signalled by the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic, the pair returned to re-test the previously broken support at 1.3070 but signs of rejection are already present. A good climb was stopped by 1.3070 and price attempted to move above the level a couple of times but didn’t succeed. This suggests that 1.3070 will turn into resistance and if this is the case, we will see today a drop towards yesterday’s low located at 1.2990; otherwise the 50 EMA is the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s another uneventful day for the Pound, so price direction will be dictated by the technical aspect and also by the U.S. Unemployment Claims but to a limited extent.

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FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS GERMAN GDP AND U.S. RETAIL SALES ARE ANNOUNCED


EUR/USD

Forex News: We had another uneventful day on the fundamental scene yesterday and the pair didn’t show any major new developments. Price fell slightly below 1.1150 then returned above it, nullifying most of the initial move.



Technical Outlook

Price is confined between the bearish trend line seen on the chart above and the support at 1.1150 and until one of these technical barriers is broken, we expect ranging movement. Today is the busiest day of the week from a fundamental perspective so the economic indicators will probably decide price direction but strictly from a technical standpoint we anticipate a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if the trend line holds.

Fundamental Outlook

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released, with a forecast change of 0.3% (previous 0.7%). Higher than forecast numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is low if the actual value comes close to analysts’ forecast.

On the US Dollar side we have the Retail Sales, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 0.4% change compared to the previous 0.6%. This type of sales represent the main part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for a big part of overall economic activity, thus higher readings usually strengthen the greenback.

The last event of the day is the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in overall economic conditions. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 91.5; same as with the other indicators, higher numbers strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD 

Yesterday the US Dollar recuperated the losses incurred a day before and the pair bounced at 1.3070 resistance, creating a bearish day. 



Technical Outlook

The pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and bounced lower after an encounter with 1.3070, which has now turned into resistance. This makes our bias bearish, anticipating a move into 1.2900 area. Possible bullish retracements will be capped by 1.3070 resistance, which we expect to hold in case it is reached, but today’s price behaviour will be mostly influenced by the U.S. releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic indicators for today so the main focus will be on the US Dollar.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION DATA ACROSS THE BOARD


EUR/USD

Forex News: For the first part of yesterday’s trading session, price traded mostly sideways due to the lack of economic releases. The second part was more active, with the bulls taking control of direction.



Technical Outlook

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and pierced both the trend line and the resistance at 1.1186. However, we must note that 1.1186 is not clearly broken so we may see a reversal from here; if price descends, it will reach the area around 1.1150 where we see a convergence of three key elements: the 1.1150 level itself, the bearish trend line and the 50 EMA (which by then will climb to reach that zone). This strong confluence area is likely to push price upwards again but on the other hand, a break would show that the US Dollar is gaining back control.

Fundamental Outlook

Two important indicators will hold today’s headlines: on the Euro side we have the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey of about 275 German investors and analysts, focused on their 6-month economic outlook. The scheduled time is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 2.1, a hefty increase from the previous -6.8.

On the US Dollar side we have a very important indicator: the Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation. Traders and the Fed pay more attention to the CORE version of the CPI, which excludes from calculation energy and food; the indicator is expected to show a 0.2% change, same as previous and is released at 12:30 pm GMT. Higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar under current conditions.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair continued its downwards path and reached our predicted target at 1.2880. The entire session was controlled by the sellers but movement wasn’t extremely strong.



Technical Outlook

Now that the pair has reached an important support zone and both oscillators are oversold, we expect retracements to the upside to begin. The extent of this potential pullback should be limited and afterwards, we anticipate another drop, with the key low at 1.2796 as target. If price descends below current support, it will probably retrace higher before 1.2800 zone is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British CPI comes out, showing the state of current inflation in the United Kingdom. The indicator usually has a high impact and can strengthen the Pound if it shows better than anticipated figures. For today’s release the forecast is 0.5%, same as previous.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES: TELLING THE STORY OF THE NEXT RATE HIKE


EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. inflation data disappointed yesterday and this was one of the reasons why the pair climbed strongly; however the CPI wasn’t much lower than anticipated so that was not the only reason for the climb.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1186 turned into support and pushed price higher in yesterday’s trading session but such a fast climb is likely to retrace lower, possibly into 1.1240 which was also broken during the rally. The Relative Strength Index is hooking down, after reaching overbought territory and this is another indication that a move lower will follow. After this anticipated retracement, if price remains above the 50 period EMA, we expect another push higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will not be affected by economic releases today and on the US Dollar side we have the always important FOMC Meeting Minutes, released at 6:00 pm GMT. This document contains a detailed record of the latest Fed meeting regarding interest rates and usually contains hints about future rate moves. If this is the case, we expect strong movement on USD pairs.


GBP/USD

The British CPI showed slight improvement and this, combined with the disappointing U.S. data, triggered a retracement higher and a bullish session.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is still bearish and consider this just a much needed retracement which was already anticipated. The candles start to show long wicks, which is a clear sign that the bullish impulse is fading away, thus we expect price to move lower today. As an alternate scenario, a break of the 50 EMA will likely take the pair into 1.3070 which is now resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:30 am GMT we take a look at British unemployment with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that tracks changes in the total number of people who asked for social help due to their unemployed condition. Higher numbers than the anticipated 5.2K (previous 0.4K) usually weaken the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW FROM MIXED FOMC OPINIONS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, the pair drifted mostly sideways, without clear direction but the document showed that participants generally agreed that the next rate hike will depend on labour market performance and economic activity.



Technical Outlook

The pair climbed when the FOMC Meeting Minutes were released but their contents were not extremely bearish for the US Dollar so we don’t expect this climb to break 1.1340 resistance; the overbought position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic strengthens our opinion that this move will not break 1.1340. However, keep in mind that the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.1240 is now support so the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the health of the manufacturing industry in the Philadelphia district. The anticipated number is 1.4, a reasonable increase from the previous -2.9 and we can expect some US Dollar strength if even higher values are posted.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher and touched the resistance at 1.3070 before the release of the Minutes and is now trying to break it on the back of mixed opinions among FOMC members regarding the next rate hike.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3070 rejected an early attack and pushed price lower but now the Pound bulls are trying to break the level again. The oscillators are close to overbought so it’s very possible to see a return below 1.3070 even if it will be briefly breached. On the other hand, a break followed by a successful re-test of the level would suggest that we will see further upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

An important British indicator is released today at 8:30 am GMT: the Retail Sales. Such sales are the most important for an economy and usually this release has strong impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 0.1%, compared with the previous -0.9% so we can expect some Pound strength if analysts’ prediction comes true or if higher values are posted.

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FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERBOUGHT LEVELS WARN ABOUT A REVERSAL


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued higher yesterday and the resistance at 1.1340 was reached although the U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was slightly better than anticipated. Overall the session was bullish but signs of a reversal started to appear.



Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is moving above the overbought level for the second time in a relatively short while, resistance sits in front of rising price and the candles show long wicks on their upper and lower parts. All these are clear signs that the current bullish move is exhausted and that a reversal is looming. The first known support is located at 1.1240 but the retracement may stop before it hits this level and on the other hand, a break of 1.1340 will open the door for the zone around 1.1400, which is where the Brexit move originated.

Fundamental Outlook

Both currencies in the pair have a lacklustre fundamental environment, without important releases. This may trigger a slow, ranging day.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound benefited from increased sales made at retail levels (anticipated 0.1%, actual 1.4%) and strengthened considerably, generating a substantial climb. 



Technical Outlook

The pair is now trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3070, which puts it in a short to medium term bullish market. The current climb is likely to continue but the extent should be limited because both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are overbought and price travelled a long distance without a retracement. Also, 1.3175 is minor resistance so we may see some sort of retracement from here.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound is not affected my major indicator releases today so we expect price direction to be decided by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: BLANK ECONOMIC CALENDAR OPENS THE DOOR FOR RANGE-BOUND STRATEGIES


EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the economic calendar was blank and action slowed down compared to previous days but the bears managed to bring the pair lower after reaching a high at 1.1366.



Technical Outlook

Price is again trading below the resistance at 1.1340 which was briefly broken last week; for now this is just a retracement in an uptrend and cannot be considered a reversal or a clear change of direction. Today we will probably see some ranging movement, capped by 1.1366 to the upside and by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside. The oscillators are exiting overbought, moving down and this makes our bias slightly bearish, without excluding another encounter with resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The day totally lacks any notable events for both the Euro and the US Dollar and this strengthens our view that we are in for a slow, ranging day.


GBP/USD

Friday belonged to the bears, who managed to bring the pair back into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is a key confluence zone, where a bounce or break could decide the next medium term move.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.3070 and the 50 period EMA create a confluence zone that can push price higher; also, the candles show wicks in their lower part, which is a sign of rejection. Based on the way price has been moving lately, the Pound seems to gain short term strength so a bounce higher is very possible. On the other hand, a break of the mentioned confluence zone would be a clear sign of power for the bears, so if that happens, we expect the pair to continue lower during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic day ahead, without major announcements; price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect but we don’t expect strong movement.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: BULLS PUSH HIGHER, AIMING FOR KEY RESISTANCE


EUR/USD

Forex News: The day lacked major events and the pair moved initially lower but soon reversed direction and travelled back up, close to the opening price of the week.



Technical Outlook

It looks like the two sides are evenly balanced and that the pair might enter a ranging period, with price capped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1340. For today we favour a move lower, into the moving average. A break of this line will extend the drop into 1.1240 and possibly into the bullish trend line seen above but the pair is in a short-to-medium term uptrend at the moment so we don’t exclude a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT the German Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 53.7, almost unchanged from the previous 53.8. This survey is derived from the opinions of about 500 purchasing managers and is focused on their opinions regarding the health of the manufacturing sector. Usually, numbers above the forecast strengthen the Euro but the impact is often limited.

On the US Dollar side we have the New Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 575K compared to the previous 592K. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month and gauges the health of the U.S. housing market, thus higher values have a positive impact on the greenback.


GBP/USD

After another attempt to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, price bounced higher, generating a bullish day although the Pound wasn’t fueled by notable economic releases.



Technical Outlook

The fact that price tried for the second time to break the moving average but failed makes us anticipate a move to the upside, that will probably reach 1.3175. This level is now resistance and we expect it to reject price lower once and if it is touched. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.3070 and the 50 EMA will probably bring in more sellers but this is less likely to occur until price climbs higher first.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the technical side and by the U.S. housing data because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable economic news releases.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE LEVELS HIT. WILL THE US DOLLAR START A NEW ASSAULT?


EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls managed to take the pair into resistance yesterday despite positive U.S. housing data; however, the effects of the New Home Sales (actual 645K, forecast 575K) are likely to make their presence known and to strengthen the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved briefly above 1.1340 resistance, we expect a bounce lower from here, with the low at 1.1270 as first target. Price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and it’s printing higher lows and higher highs so it’s clear that the pair is in an uptrend but the move up seems exhausted. The moving average is in close vicinity of the latest low so the way price behaves when and if it gets there, will offer hints about future movement. On the other hand, a break of 1.1340 will open the door for the high at 1.1366.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator on today’s calendar is the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator excludes from calculation new buildings and usually has a low-to-medium impact, but higher numbers than the forecast 5.55M can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

As expected the pair continued to climb and reached the resistance at 1.3175, generating a bullish day. Although the level was breached, we don’t consider that the move will extend much further.



Technical Outlook

The pair has moved above 1.3175 resistance but the Relative Strength Index is touching its overbought level and on top of that, bearish divergence is present. This type of divergence indicates that a move lower may soon follow and occurs when price is making a higher high but a corresponding oscillator (the RSI in this case) is just showing a lower high. If the pair returns soon below 1.3175, it means the bullish break was false and that we will see a move lower, probably into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another slow economic day ahead, with no major indicators on the calendar. The direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect and to some extent, by the U.S. housing data.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED REACTION AHEAD OF JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the economic releases didn’t have a huge impact but after an encounter with resistance, the US Dollar gained some momentum and reached support, generating a bearish session.



Technical Outlook

The bears managed to break an important confluence zone, created by the support at 1.1270 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This shows that the balance of power is starting to tilt in their favour and that we will probably see an encounter with the bullish trend line on the chart above. On the other hand, a move above the 50 EMA will open the door for a climb back into 1.1340 but the economic releases will likely be the deciding factor.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT, the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding their economic expectations for the next 6 months. The large sample of this survey is what makes it important and usually numbers above the forecast 108.5, strengthen the Euro.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods orders come out, with an anticipated 3.4% change, a strong increase from the previous -3.9%. If the actual number will be close to this forecast, the US Dollar is likely to strengthen.

Also keep in mind that today is the first day of the Jackson Hole Symposium and this may increase volatility because the event is attended by key financial and political personalities from across the globe.


GBP/USD

The Pound remained above 1.3175 and strengthened without apparent reason yesterday, generating a bullish day for the pair.



Technical Outlook

We expect the current climb to extend into the resistance at 1.3280 and if this barrier is broken, we may see a climb into 1.3365 during the days to come. However, the up move is exhausted and both oscillators are overbought so we rather favour a bounce lower around the 1.3280 zone. The U.S. economic indicators will have an important part to play in today’s direction and the Jackson Hole Symposium may do the same.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases but British personalities will be present at the Symposium so volatility may increase and caution is recommended.

Edited August 25, 2016 by GDMFX

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR PREPARES FOR YELLEN’S JACKSON HOLE SPEECH


EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro data released yesterday was slightly worse than anticipated while the U.S. Durable Goods Orders exceeded analysts’ expectations, yet the pair didn’t have a bearish reaction and instead moved above the moving average.



Technical Outlook

After nearly touching the support at 1.1240, the pair bounced higher and moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, setting the stage for a resumption of the uptrend. However, the current move up doesn’t show strength and in fact the entire yesterday’s session was low-volatility; this may suggest that price may be headed in fact lower, towards the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. The main levels to watch today are 1.1240 to the downside and 1.1340 as resistance; if the pair moves below the 50 EMA we favour a touch of the mentioned support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out, showing changes in the total value of services and goods produced by the economy. This version is less important than the Advance, which was released already, but still, higher values than the forecast 1.1% can strengthen the US Dollar.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium at 2:00 pm GMT. The speech is titled “The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit" so we can surely expect her to talk about monetary policy and usually this topic creates strong market movement.


GBP/USD

Yesterday price travelled the entire distance between resistance and support and seems like the positive U.S. economic data had a strong impact on the pair, unlike it was with the EUR/USD.



Technical Outlook

After the bearish bounce close to 1.3280, the anticipated retracement occurred, but now 1.3175 seems to have turned into support. If this level will push price higher, we expect a move into 1.3280, but a bearish break will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target. Both oscillators are coming down from overbought, favouring a bearish scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Second Estimate British GDP is released and anticipated to show a change of 0.6%, same as previous. The GDP is the gauge of overall economic performance, thus higher numbers usually have a positive impact on the currency.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: YELLEN BOOSTS THE US DOLLAR, PAIRS DROP THROUGH SUPPORT


EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears scored a major victory Friday, mostly fuelled by Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Several support levels were broken and now the balance has shifted towards the short side.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s fall took the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, broke 1.1240 support and the bullish trend line, making the bias clearly bearish. However, after a strong move in one direction, usually price retraces or moves sideways for a period, so we expect some bullish pullbacks today. The oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and the vicinity of 1.1185 support strengthen this view, making us anticipate bullish retracements but these will most likely be followed by another drop.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Personal Spending is released, showing the changes in the total value of expenditures made by U.S. individuals. The indicator has a relatively low impact on the US Dollar but higher numbers than the forecast 0.3% can strengthen it because consumer spending represents the main part of the entire economic activity.


GBP/USD

Friday, after a brief jump that took the pair into resistance, the US Dollar strengthened during Yellen’s speech and price dropped for more than 150 pips, creating a bearish trading session.



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3280 is still a key level that stopped once again bullish advances and rejected the pair lower, into the 50 period EMA. As long as the bears can keep the pair below the moving average, our bias is negative and we anticipate a move into 1.3070. If the pair moves back above the moving average, we are likely to see a touch of 1.3175. 

Fundamental Outlook

British banks will be closed today, celebrating their Summer Bank Holiday; this also means that no major indicators will be released and volatility may be low.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL, OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR RETRACEMENTS


EUR/USD

Forex News: The speed of movement slowed down yesterday but the US Dollar continued to strengthen against its peers and support was broken, creating a bearish trading session.



Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the support at 1.1150, where we expect a bullish retracement based on the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic. This potential retracement can find resistance at 1.1185 and if this level rejects price, we expect a move below 1.1150, towards 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT we take a look at German inflation with the release of the Preliminary version of their Consumer Price Index. This is a key indicator that can strengthen the Euro if it posts a reading above the forecast 0.1% (previous 0.3%).

On the US Dollar side we have the Consumer Confidence survey, released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 97.2, little changed from the previous 97.3. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending and higher values usually strengthen the greenback, with the opposite being true for lower values.


GBP/USD

After the break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, more sellers joined in and the fall extended into support. The economic scene was rather calm so the move was mostly technical.



Technical Outlook

Although the bears have short term control, we expect the pair to bounce at 1.3070 and to climb slightly, due to the oversold condition of the oscillators. However, a break of this important support would show that the bears are stronger than anticipated and would mean that further downside will follow. Even if the pair moves below support, we expect some sort of retracement to follow soon, based on the fact that the move will become overextended.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic announcements for today, so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. survey and by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT – A FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA


EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI released yesterday was slightly worse than expected and the U.S. Consumer survey was slightly better than anticipated, so the pair descended below 1.1150 after a short ranging period.



Technical Outlook

Price just pierced 1.1150 but did not break it decisively and the two oscillators are still oversold, making us anticipate a bullish retracement that will probably reach 1.1185. If this level turns into resistance and rejects the pair lower, then we can expect to see a clear break of 1.1150 and a move closer to 1.1100 but if 1.1185 doesn’t turn into resistance, we may see a climb into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment levels with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment, a report that tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the government and of course the farming industry. The anticipated number is 173K (previous 179K) and higher levels can strengthen the US Dollar but its impact (although high), is lower than the NFP report released Friday.


GBP/USD

The support at 1.3070 proved yesterday its importance once again and rejected price higher. However, the pair did not surpass the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is still bearish.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we maintain a bearish stance and anticipate a break of 1.3070 but so far the sellers tried twice to break this level and each time they failed. This shows that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side and suggests that a break of the moving average will probably take price closer to 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

A lot will depend on the U.S. jobs data released today and this will probably be the main market mover, especially because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases.

[GDMFX 0]

FOREX NEWS: RANGING MOVEMENT IN ANTICIPATION OF KEY U.S. JOBS DATA


EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite the oversold condition of the two oscillators, the pair grinded slowly lower yesterday and moved below 1.1150. The U.S. ADP jobs data came very close to the forecast value, thus the event didn’t have a huge impact.



Technical Outlook

The pair is en route to 1.1100 support and once it gets there, we expect the bulls to step in and take price higher, clearing the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index. It’s possible to see such a retracement even before 1.1100 support is reached, because the speed of movement has decreased and the oscillators are oversold for a relatively long while. A bullish move will likely find resistance at 1.1185 and if 1.1100 is broken, price can find support at 1.1075.

Fundamental Outlook

The European scene is slow today and on the US Dollar side we have the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 52.0, little changed from the previous 52.6. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the manufacturing sector and has a positive impact on the greenback if the actual number is higher than analysts’ forecast.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls tried to move the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday but overall price showed mixed direction, with sharp reversals.



Technical Outlook

After the move above the 50 EMA the pair returned close to 1.3070 and then pushed higher again. This type of movement shows that neither side in is clear control and that the next move is uncertain. Until the resistance at 1.3175 or the support at 1.3070 is broken, we consider the pair in a range and expect direction to be influenced by the economic releases scheduled today and tomorrow.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the United Kingdom will release Manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, regarding overall business conditions in said sector and usually has a medium impact, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound. The forecast for today’s release is 49.1, slightly higher than the previous 48.2.