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Gdmfx - Daily News

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[B][I]Forex News: US Retail Sales, the day’s market-mover

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair dropped sharply during yesterday’s trading session as the Euro Zone Industrial Production posted worse than expected numbers, indicating decreased activity and a slowdown of the economic recovery.

2014.02.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-mark

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The latest move above 1.3650 failed to produce the expected results and price returned below resistance on the back of disappointing economic data. This shifts the balance of power in favor of the bears once more but the pair faces support at 1.3550 and moves to the north are a distinct possibility since no clear trend is in place. Today’s important US events will have a strong impact on price movement, overshadowing the technical side.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The US Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to slightly decrease from the previous 0.2% to 0.0%. The retail sector represents a major part of the entire consumer spending which in turn represents the biggest part of the US economy so better than expected values usually strengthen the greenback. Later in the day, at 3:30 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the speech has the potential to be a major market mover so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Pound strengthened substantially against the US Dollar after the Inflation Report showed the Bank of England has a positive outlook regarding economic growth and hinted about future interest rate increases.

2014.02.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-mark

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

After breaking 1.6440, price stalled there for a while before moving furiously to the upside. Now the important resistance located at 1.6600 is very close but the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition on a four hour chart. After such a strong move, a retracement is in order, even if the medium term control clearly belongs to the bears. The pair’s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect and the technical part will be somewhat secondary.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook
[/I][/B]
Although the United Kingdom didn’t schedule the release of any economic or financial indicators, the US Retail Sales and Janet Yellen’s testimony will most likely generate volatility and sharp moves.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

Edited by GDMFX

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[i][b]Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls may give back some of their gains

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar weakened substantially against the Euro as the US Retail Sales showed a decrease of consumer spending, allowing the pair to climb for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

2014.02.14-The-bulls-may-give-back-some-

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The pair moved back above 1.3650, continuing the bullish impulse seen in the beginning of the week; however price is showing signs of rejection judging by the long upper wicks of the candles and strong resistance is ahead (1.3710). We are neutral on the pair but consider that a successful re-test of the recently broken level will bring the pair into 1.3710 resistance.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

Early at 07:00 am GMT the German Gross Domestic Product is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.6% to 1.3%. Such an increase will most likely strengthen the Euro as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. Later in the day at 2:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually has a strong impact on the pair. The expected figure is 80.6, an almost insignificant increase from the previous 80.4.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

The Pound continued to gain against the greenback and the important resistance located at 1.6600 was broken relatively easy.

2014.02.14-The-bulls-may-give-back-some-

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

Yesterday’s climb stopped in the resistance zone created around 1.6665 and a retracement lower is still anticipated, considering the severe overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. Without a doubt the bulls are in control but a retracement is needed before the pair can move into the resistance located at 1.6750. If a move into the mentioned resistance occurs, we don’t expect it to be completed today.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so price action will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]The Forex Market: Markets react to the Euro Group Meetings

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

The Forex Market: Friday the US posted mixed data but overall the Dollar is weakening and this combined with better than anticipated German Gross Domestic Product generated another bullish move which took price into resistance.

2014.02.17-Markets-react-to-the-Euro-Gro

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair finished last week right on the important resistance located at 1.3710 and the Relative Strength Index just touched the 70 level, showing signs of an overbought market. These factors make us believe that today price may stall or retrace lower but the market can remain overbought for an extended period of time so further bullish advances are not out of the question.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Euro Group meetings take place today and are attended by personalities from the political and financial scene. The meetings are usually closed to the press but officials often speak with journalists during the day and this can generate volatility and sharp moves, depending on the matters discussed. The US Banks will be closed in celebration of Presidents’ Day so the New York session may be characterized by irregular movement.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Pound showed tremendous strength against its counterpart and Friday the pair climbed for the fourth consecutive day on the back of speculation about a potential interest rate hike.

2014.02.17-Markets-react-to-the-Euro-Gro

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Price rocketed Friday and the important resistance located at 1.6750 was touched, setting the scene for a bounce-or-break scenario. Without a doubt the bulls are in control of the market but the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is showing a severe overbought condition. This fact, combined with the strength of the current level may finally generate a retracement lower which will most likely be followed by a move higher.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for today so price action will be driven mostly by the technical aspect of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]Forex News: Resuming bullish price action?

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News:Yesterday the pair ranged for almost the entire day and the Euro Group meetings didn’t do much to change this behavior. Resistance is still holding and price is trading very close to it.

2014.02.18-Resuming-bullish-price-action
[B][I]
Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Recent price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction but the resistance located at 1.3710 is still holding. However, this resistance level didn’t reject strong movement and it didn’t generate a bounce lower so we consider that it is pretty fragile and can be broken by a bullish impulse. Important data is released today so a direction will probably be established.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, with an anticipated decrease from the previous 61.7 to 61.3. The importance of this survey comes from the fact that it is derived from the opinions of about 275 German institutional investors and professional analysts who are asked to rate the 6 month outlook for the German economy. Due to the nature of their jobs, they are highly informed about the economic situation and can give an accurate assessment. Usually, better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Pound’s strength took the pair above the resistance located at 1.6750 but yesterday the much anticipated retracement lower finally occurred and the bears made their presence known.

2014.02.18-Resuming-bullish-price-action

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The uptrend is still very strong and yesterday’s move lower is considered just a retracement which cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, not a reversal. We expect trend resumption today but if price will stop in the resistance zone (1.6750), then maybe the strength of the bulls is exhausted and the bears will take over. The first potential support is located at 1.6665 and may push price higher if touched.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and it is also taken into consideration by the Bank of England when the interest rate decision is made. Values of the CPI which exceed a certain range may determine the BoE to adjust rates and although the current value of 2.0% is not expected to change today, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release; usually higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[i][b]The Forex Market: Fed and BoE Meeting Minutes – the day’s headlines

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

The Forex Market: Despite a worse than expected value of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and resistance was broken decisively.

2014.02.19-Fed-and-BoE-Meeting-Minutes-t

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The decisive break of 1.3710 resistance confirms the strength of the bulls and the fact that the pair is in trading in an uptrend. This makes 1.3830 the next major resistance and target but we must note the fact that the Relative Strength Index surpassed the 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the market. Of course, this condition doesn’t mean that a retracement will occur right away but further advances may be more difficult. The broken resistance located at 1.3710 is likely to turn into support if price will reach it again.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The US Producer Price Index is released today at 1:30 pm GMT; the indicator shows the change in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and usually higher values strengthen the US Dollar due to inflationary implications (eventually a higher price charged by producers will be passed on to the consumer). For today’s release, analysts expect a decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.2%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT, the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons which influenced the Rate decision. Volatility will most likely be present at the time of the release.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising decrease to 1.9% from the anticipated 2.0%, a fact which weakened the Pound against its counterpart and allowed the pair to move lower.

2014.02.19-Fed-and-BoE-Meeting-Minutes-t

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The pair touched support at 1.6665 and now looks prepared for another bullish push towards 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition and allows moves higher but a fall below 1.6600 would shift the balance of power in favor of the bears. Today’s price action will be highly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The United Kingdom releases the Claimant Count Change at 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous -24.0K to -18.3K, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound since the indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will contain a breakdown of the members’ votes regarding the interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]The Forex Market: Approaching support levels – a good place for trend resumption

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

The Forex Market: Yesterday’s price action was mixed and rather ranging until the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes which generated a move lower which was not characterized by a strong or immediate continuation.

2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index was cleared by yesterday’s move lower but now an encounter with the level of 1.3710 is very probable. If this touch occurs, price is likely to bounce higher, continuing the latest bullish momentum. Moves below 1.3710 would indicate that the power of the bulls is fading and would make 1.3650 the next target.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Early at 08:00 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an almost insignificant decrease being anticipated: 56.4 from the previous 56.5. The indicator is derived from the opinions of managers from the manufacturing sector and it’s a leading sign of economic health so better numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the French Manufacturing PMI is released and it’s anticipated to increase from the previous 49.3 to 49.6. Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge and usually strengthens the US Dollar if higher than anticipated values are posted. Today’s expected value is 1.6% while the previous was 1.5%.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Before the FOMC Minutes, the pair tested 1.6665 support zone once again but bounced higher and the FOMC Minutes failed to trigger a break of support or a significant move higher.

2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

If the bearish impulse generated by yesterday’s US events cannot take price below 1.6665, we are likely to see higher prices. The pair already tested this support twice and didn’t succeed to break it so another failed attempt would increase the probability of uptrend resumption. Moves lower will shift the medium term balance of power in the favor of the bears only if 1.6600 is broken.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 11:00 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to increase from the previous -2 to 6, a fact which would fuel bullish movement but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market. Of course the US Consumer Price Index will directly affect the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]Forex News: Ending the week with a bounce-or-break scenario

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The US data released yesterday strengthened the US Dollar while German and French PMIs both showed a worse than anticipated value which proved detrimental for the Euro. Overall we had a bearish day and the pair moved slowly beneath support.

2014.02.21-Ending-the-week-with-a-bounce

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The fact that price moved below 1.3710 indicates that the power of the bulls is fading and makes 1.3650 the next target. However, the pair is still in a medium term uptrend so bullish moves are a distinct possibility, especially because the break of 1.3710 is not clear or very strong. If this is the case, the first potential resistance is located at 1.3770.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released with an anticipated decrease from the previous 4.87M to 4.73M. Under normal conditions better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar and take the pair lower. The Euro Zone didn’t schedule any news releases for today.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The pair continued to move lower throughout yesterday’s trading session, fueled by good US data but price action was choppy, with a lot of reversals on the lower time frames.

2014.02.21-Ending-the-week-with-a-bounce

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

As we mentioned before, we consider that the bears will show real signs of strength if price drops below 1.6600. So at the moment the bias is still bullish, although price didn’t bounce higher off the support located at 1.6665. The upper target of the day is 1.6750 while the first important support is located at 1.6600. However, the pair’s movement will be highly affected by the UK data released today.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

An important UK event is scheduled today: the release of the Retail Sales numbers. A big decrease is anticipated from the previous 2.6% to -0.9%, a fact which would weaken the Pound and allow the pair to move lower. The release is scheduled at 09:30 am GMT and will probably have a strong impact on the market. The US Existing Home Sales will also affect the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[i][b]Forex News: A breakout is highly expected

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

Forex News: Both the German Business Climate and the Euro Zone CPI came out slightly better than anticipated but apparently the market participants expected better numbers so the actual values came as a disappointment.

2014.02.25-A-breakout-is-highly-expected

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The anticipated break of the resistance located at 1.3770 or the support located at 1.3710 didn’t occur and in fact both of them were touched almost to the pip. The market is deciding the next move and today we are likely to see the result but at the moment nothing is clear. The strength of the bulls is starting to fade away and the breakout we mentioned will most likely decide the day’s direction.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The main event of the day is the release of the US Consumer Confidence which is a leading indicator of consumer spending as confident consumers are more likely to spend more, hence boosting the economy. The release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and a decrease to 80.2 from the previous 80.7 is anticipated; better numbers usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

The Pound continued to lose ground yesterday against the US Dollar as signs of economic contraction are starting to appear. However, in the second part of yesterday’s trading session the Pound recovered the losses.

2014.02.25-A-breakout-is-highly-expected

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The pair had yesterday another trading session characterized by indecision and sharp reversals. Today we expect a break of either support or resistance. The optimism that surrounded the Pound lately is starting to fade so our bias is slightly bearish for the day, anticipating a break of the support located at 1.6600.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

At 09:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association releases the Mortgage Approvals, an indicator which shows the number of mortgages approved for home purchases. The expected figure is 47.9, an increase from the previous 46.5 and usually a better than anticipated value strengthens the Pound. Of course the US release mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[i][b]Forex News: A clear move is still anticipated

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

Forex News: Surprisingly the pair remained inside the range for another day and price action was characterized by sharp reversals and whipsaws on the lower time frames. US data came our worse than expected, a fact which only created more difficult trading conditions.

2014.02.26-A-clear-move-is-still-anticip

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

Until a clear, decisive breakout occurs, we have a neutral bias on this pair. Lower time frames such as 15 and 5 minutes are extremely hard to trade and all moves are almost immediately reversed. Resistance still sits at 1.3770, a level which gains more and more strength, while support is located at 1.3710.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The day lacks major indicators but the most important one is the release of the US New Home Sales. The indicator offers insights into the US housing market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers are posted. For today’s release (scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT), analysts expect a decrease from the previous 414K to 406K.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

The Pound strengthened throughout the day against the greenback but the release of the US Consumer Confidence created a “V” shaped pattern which probably took out a lot of Stop Loss orders and created a choppy trading environment.

2014.02.26-A-clear-move-is-still-anticip

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

Although the pair moved above the resistance located at 1.6665, the four hour candles show indecision and even rejection (long upper wicks), a fact which makes us believe this is not a valid breakout. We are neutral on this pair as well but the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. The fundamental aspect will play a major role in today’s developments, overshadowing the technical factors.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The release of United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is the headline of the day. Scheduled at 09:30 am GMT, the GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% but a surprise would create a lot of turmoil in the market. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and has the capability to influence the pair’s movement drastically. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound and will most likely strengthen it, driving the pair higher; the opposite applies for a lower value of the GDP and of course, the US data will be an important factor for today’s price action.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[i][b]Forex News: US fundamental events steal the headlines once again

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

Forex News: The Dollar strengthened against the Euro throughout yesterday’s trading session as the US New Home Sales posted a much better than anticipated value, increasing optimism that Fed will continue to taper the monetary stimulus.

2014.02.27-US-fundamental-events-steal-t

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The decisive break of 1.3710 to the down side signifies a major victory for the bears and maybe more important than that, it suggests that the ranging period is over. A re-test from below is possible, especially considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index is approaching an oversold condition but for now the control belongs to the bears and we are likely to see moves lower.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Consumer Price Index is released but no change is anticipated from the current 1.3%. This is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value usually strengthens the Euro because the German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone. The US Durable Goods Orders are released at 1:30 pm GMT and a big change is expected from the previous -4.2% to -1.6%. More orders for durable goods suggest that manufacturers will increase their activity to satisfy demand and normally this strengthens the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The focus will be on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and after reading a prepared statement, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by the Committee members. This second part is likely to generate the most volatility and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom surprisingly dropped yesterday to 2.7% from the previous 2.8%, weakening the Pound and allowing moves lower.

2014.02.27-US-fundamental-events-steal-t

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

Although UK data was disappointing and US data better than anticipated, the pair didn’t travel a huge distance to the south so we cannot consider the bears to be in control. However, 1.6665 support was broken yesterday and if a re-test generates a move lower which will break 1.6600 support, the bias changes to bearish. Of course, 1.6600 may be broken even without a re-test of 1.6665 and moves to the north are not out of the question either.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so the main focus will be on the US events and on the technical aspect.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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Forex News: Dollar strength affected by the US Gross Domestic Product

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was characterized by Euro weakness mainly due to the lower than anticipated German CPI but once disappointing US data came out, the pair climbed to touch the previously broken level of 1.3710.

2014.02.28-Dollar-strength-affected-by-t

Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair is testing from below the broken level of 1.3710 and if this test results in a bounce lower, it means that we are dealing with previous support turned resistance. This fact would indicate that bears are indeed in control of the pair’s short to medium term movement and we are likely to see a break of yesterday’s lowest point (1.3643). Otherwise, the next resistance is located at 1.3770 and might be the pair’s next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer price Index Estimate is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.7%. Higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the European economy and have the potential to take the pair higher. However, the most important event of the day is the release of the US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The anticipated value is 2.6%, a decrease from the previous 3.2%; lower numbers suggest an economic contraction and are perceived as detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session which started with the bears being in control but finished higher, above 1.6665. Overall it was a difficult day for trading on the lower time frames.

2014.02.28-Dollar-strength-affected-by-t

Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, moving above and below 1.6665 and we maintain our neutral bias until a clear move occurs. For the moment the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. Until the pair breaks decisively either one of them, the ranging movement will continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak today at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt. The event is scheduled at 3:30 pm GMT and is likely to create volatility, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

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[i][b]Forex News: Mario Draghi testifies – waiting for the market’s reaction

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

Forex News: Friday the bulls scored the biggest victory of last week by taking the pair close to the major resistance located at 1.3830 on the back of a better than anticipated European CPI and a disappointing US Gross Domestic Product.

2014.03.03-Mario-Draghi-testifies-waitin

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

As mentioned before, a crucial resistance sits in front of rising prices and we have already seen signs of rejection on a four hour chart. The Relative Strength Index is indicating an overbought market and it’s likely for the pair to pull back to 1.3770 before further advances to the upside can be made. The technical side of the market will be somewhat secondary and all eyes will be on Mario Draghi’s testimony.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The most important event of the day is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The president will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and we expect a lot of strong moves to occur at the time, depending on his attitude. Whipsaws and sharp reversals are a distinct possibility so we recommend caution if trading during the testimony. The US Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected increase from the previous 51.3 to 52.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback if it were to come true or if even higher numbers will be posted.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

The worse than expected US Gross Domestic Product allowed the pair to climb higher during Friday’s trading session. Price action was rather choppy on the lower time frames but the day was bullish nonetheless.

2014.03.03-Mario-Draghi-testifies-waitin

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

As we mentioned last week, we are neutral on the pair until a clear break of either support (1.6600) or resistance (1.6750) occurs. The bulls had a good run Friday but resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible. If this occurs, the first level of importance to the down side is 1.6665; on the other hand, a break of resistance would have to be confirmed by a re-test unless the move up is a very strong one.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT and a small increase is anticipated from the previous 56.7 to 56.9. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector, better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]Forex News: Support levels are targeted

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Surprisingly, the market didn’t react almost at all during Mario Draghi’s testimony which took place yesterday in Brussels. Although the president’s comments were rather positive regarding the lending situation in Europe, the single currency didn’t strengthen as estimated.

2014.03.04-Support-levels-are-targeted-p

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Friday’s top couldn’t be surpassed yesterday and it appears as the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index combined with the strength of 1.3830 resistance are setting the stage for a reversal. Even if signs of lower prices are present in the market, the pair is still under the control of the bulls from a medium term perspective so another push towards 1.3830 is very possible. However, we consider 1.3710 to be the first lower target. Note that the week opened with a gap lower and more often than not these gaps are filled so we might see price move to the upper part of the gap today or in the days to come, especially if 1.3710 is touched and manages to push the pair higher.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The release of the Spanish Unemployment Change is the only noteworthy event of the day. The estimated value is 74.2K, a decrease from the previous 113.1K; usually lower than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro as less unemployed people are a sign of a thriving economy. However, the event is considered to have a medium impact on the pair’s movement.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The British Manufacturing PMI met analysts’ forecast and posted a value of 56.9, a fact which didn’t create surprising moves but allowed the pair to have a bearish day following a bounce off 1.6750 resistance.

2014.03.04-Support-levels-are-targeted-p

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair is trading close to the level of 1.6665 and it looks like the bulls don’t have the power needed to push price above 1.6750. Even if we still maintain a neutral stance until either 1.6750 or 1.6600 is broken, we believe that a touch of the mentioned support is very likely if 1.6665 is broken to the downside. A break-or-bounce scenario will unfold if the pair touches 1.6600 support and the result will most likely influence the medium term outlook.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The British Construction PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 64.6 to 63.6. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]Forex News: Support still holding but uncertainty rules the market

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Yesterday we had a rather mixed trading session, with price reversing direction several times, a fact which generated a difficult trade environment. Tensions in Ukraine added to the lack of clear direction.

2014.03.05-Support-still-holding-but-unc

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Although the pair made a run for the support located at 1.3710, this level couldn’t be touched and the bulls took price higher for a re-test of the recently broken level of 1.3770. This re-test and the bounce lower that followed confirm the fact that now 1.3770 is resistance once again and moves to the south are a distinct possibility. However, the first support is located pretty close to current price and may reject price if touched, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an oversold condition at the time.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Early at 08:15 am GMT the Spanish Services PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 54.9 to 55.3. Half an hour later the Italian Services PMI is released and anticipated to increase from 49.4 to 50.6. Since both are leading indicators of health for the services sector in their respective countries, better than expected values usually strengthen the Euro but they are not considered high impact indicators.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the US Non Farm Employment Change will be announced by Automatic Data Processing Inc.; although this release doesn’t have such a huge impact as the government indicator with the same name which comes out two days later, it has the potential to influence the market, especially if a surprising number is posted. The estimate is 159K, a decrease from the previous 175K and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The British Construction PMI came out worse than estimated, a fact which reversed a previous rally seen early yesterday on the lower time frames and triggered a slow decline for the rest of the day. However, the pair couldn’t move decisively away from 1.6665.

2014.03.05-Support-still-holding-but-unc

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

No clear developments took place yesterday and currently the pair is trading close to 1.6665, a level which seems to attract price more and more recently. There are no clear signs of control exhibited by either bulls or bears and price action remains mixed until a break of 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support occurs.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT with a small decrease anticipated from the previous 58.3 to 58.0. Since this is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers have the potential to strengthen the Pound. Of course the US employment data will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]Forex News: Interest Rates are here again – a wild day ahead

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: European data released yesterday was slightly better than anticipated while the US ADP Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of employment levels during the previous month. Despite the data released, the greenback didn’t manage to take the pair below 1.3710.

2014.03.06-Interest-Rates-are-here-again

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Two four-hour candles touched the support located at 1.3710 and both were rejected, closing with long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of a potential bounce higher, with the first target being 1.3770, followed by 1.3830. Price action may be irregular until the ECB Press Conference is over and throughout the day, the technical factors will be secondary to the fundamental aspect.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Today is a critical day for the Euro as the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision at 12:45 am GMT (no change anticipated from the current 0.25%). The rate announcement will be followed 45 minutes later by a Press Conference during which ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and will answer audience questions. This Q&A session is usually a reason for huge volatility and sharp reversals as traders try to interpret Draghi’s comments and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The British Services PMI posted a slightly better than estimated value, increasing demand for the currency while bad US employment data weakened the Dollar, allowing the pair to have a bullish trading session.

2014.03.06-Interest-Rates-are-here-again

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Yesterday’s rise confirmed 1.6650 as support after a successful bounce higher off this level and once again we are close to the resistance located at 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition of the market and yesterday’s candles are full, without wicks to either side, indicating bull strength. However, a break of resistance cannot be anticipated because of important fundamental events which will most likely influence the day’s price direction.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Bank of England announces today at 12:00 pm GMT the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. No change is anticipated for either of them but nonetheless, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release. The current Interest Rate is 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility is 375B and a surprise modification (or even hints of a future change) would generate huge moves.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[size=medium][i][b]Forex News: All eyes on the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD[/b][/i]

Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% but the single currency strengthened substantially on the back of comments made by Mario Draghi who suggested that no additional monetary stimulus is necessary, considering the current state of the economy.

2014.03.07-All-eyes-on-the-US-Non-Farm-P

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The recent rally will probably continue after a brief retracement lower which is likely to find support around the freshly broken level of 1.3830. The four hour Relative Strength Index is signaling an overbought condition of the market, a fact which more often than not results in a bearish move. Although the outlook is bullish, almost anything is possible, especially if today’s US employment report shows a surprising value.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

Without a doubt the US Non Farm Employment Change report is the day’s headline as it has a tremendous impact on the market each time it is released. The jobs situation is a concerning factor for the American economy and today’s report is considered the main gauge of this situation. Higher values suggest that more people are employed and also that consumer spending may increase in the future, a beneficial fact for the greenback. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the estimated figure is 151K, an increase from the previous 113K.


[i][b]GBP/USD[/b][/i]

Bank of England decided to make no adjustments to the Interest Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility but the pair moved to the north after some choppy price action experienced at the time of the interest rate release.

2014.03.07-All-eyes-on-the-US-Non-Farm-P

[i][b]Technical Outlook[/b][/i]

The resistance located at 1.6750 is finally broken after a long period of indecision. However, the break is not extremely strong so we are waiting for a re-test of the level and a bounce higher in order to consider this break a real one. The US Dollar will be highly influenced today by the US Non Farm Payrolls and the technical aspect of the market will be somewhat secondary.

[i][b]Fundamental Outlook[/b][/i]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for the day and market participants will be mainly focused on the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[size=medium][B][I]Forex News: Bears fight back – US Dollar rebounds

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The final day of the week that just ended was heavily influenced by the US Non Farm Employment report which exceeded expectations and strengthened the greenback as a result. Overall, the day was characterized by a sharp reversal which made trend following strategies almost impossible to trade successfully.

2014.03.10-Bears-fight-back-US-Dollar-re

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Friday’s move lower is considered a retracement in an uptrend, with the main bias being bullish. An important resistance was broken last week, a fact which solidifies the control of the bulls but signs of weakness are present in the market: the Relative Strength Index is already moving down from overbought territory and the latest daily candle is a pin (which indicates rejection). Moves below 1.3830 may be indicative of increased bearish pressure and a break of Friday’s high located at 1.3914 would indicate trend continuation.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Euro Group meetings take place today in Brussels and are a potential market mover, considering the fact that important officials will be present (ECB President, Euro Group President and finance ministers from the member states). Although the meetings are closed to the press, participants often talk to journalists, possibly creating volatility, depending on the matters discussed.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Friday the pair continued its choppy price action, moving above and below the level of 1.6750 before dropping on the back of good US employment data which reinforced the US Dollar.

2014.03.10-Bears-fight-back-US-Dollar-re

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The recent move south is backed by fundamental events and the strength of the Pound seems to fade away as we saw the bulls make several failed attempts to break resistance. Our bias remains neutral in anticipation of a clear breakout but there are increased chances of an encounter with the first minor support level located at 1.6650.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Other than the Euro Group meetings, there are no notable events scheduled today and we anticipate slow trading if no major developments take place in Brussels.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[B][I]Forex News: Mark Carney’s testimony steals the headlines

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The week started with ranging price action and the pair lacked clear direction. No major economic indicators were released, contributing to the ranging price action and slow movement.

2014.03.11-Mark-Carneys-testimony-steals

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

As mentioned, yesterday price was confined in a narrow range but this fact makes us believe that today we will see stronger moves. The pair is in an uptrend but the fact that buyers failed to take price higher may suggest that lower moves will follow; if this is the case, 1.3830 is the next potential support and target of the day. Keep in mind that bulls are still in control of the pair and only a break of support would mean that bears are really starting to shift the power in their favor.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a slow day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases and we consider the technical aspect to be the main market mover.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The sellers managed to seize control of the pair yesterday and took price below the support located at 1.6650. Overall we had a day without sharp reversals and a steady trend was in place on the lower time frames.

2014.03.11-Mark-Carneys-testimony-steals

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

As mentioned before, the pair broke 1.6650 support and is now trading below it. Short term control belongs to the bears but the break is not a clear one and we still consider the picture to be unclear until a break of 1.6600 occurs. Although moves above 1.6650 are possible, we slightly favor the short side but we acknowledge the fact that today’s important fundamental events may overshadow the technical aspect.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The most important event of the day is Mark Carney’s testimony before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee with the main focus being the economic outlook and the inflation situation. During the few hours of the hearings, strong and even irregular movement may be experienced, depending on the matters discussed. The hearings start at 09:30 am GMT and at the same time the UK Manufacturing Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from 1.5% to 3.3%. Better than anticipated values for this indicator are usually beneficial for the Pound and have the potential to take the pair higher.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[B][I]Forex News: Markets governed by indecision. Strong moves still expected

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day, characterized by a sharp reversal after a touch of 1.3830 support zone. The fundamental scene was quiet, a fact which contributed to the pair’s lack of strong movement and narrow range.

2014.03.12-Markets-governed-by-indecisio

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

An important level was barely touched yesterday but price showed an almost immediate reaction, bouncing higher for about 40 pips. This is without a doubt a bullish sign but lately the pair seems to lack momentum and the buyers’ strength is slowly fading away. On the other hand, even if our anticipated target of 1.3830 was almost reached, we didn’t see clear bearish pressure. All this goes to show that the market is governed by indecision and the next strong move will probably determine the short term bias. Support still sits at 1.3830 while the highest price reached this year (1.3914) will probably act as resistance.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Industrial Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.5% to 1.9%. Such a change would be beneficial for the Euro and we might see higher prices as this is a leading indicator of economic health. The US has a slow day ahead and no major indicators are released.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Although we expected Mark Carney’s testimony to have a higher impact on the market, the pair moved between support and resistance for the entire day and no major developments took place.

2014.03.12-Markets-governed-by-indecisio

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

For a long time the pair has been trading between the support located at 1.6600 and the resistance located at 1.6750; a clear break of either level would most likely determine the pair’s next medium term direction so we can say that we are a crossroad now: if 1.6600 will be broken today, we are likely to see and extended move lower but a bounce higher off this level would indicate that the ranging period is not over yet.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The day ahead lacks major economic releases and this makes the technical aspect the most influential factor of the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].

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[size=medium][B][I]Forex News: US Retail Sales – the incentive for a break of Support or Resistance

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with price moving in one direction for almost the entire day. The better than expected value of the Euro Zone Industrial Production greatly contributed to this upward movement by strengthening the Euro.

2014.03.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-incentive

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair made an attempt to break this year’s high located at 1.3914 and price is now in close vicinity of this level but there are no clear hints of a breakout or of a bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is very close to the 70 level, a fact which indicates an overbought condition of the market and price is printing a double top pattern which usually indicates that lower moves are anticipated. The main levels to watch are 1.3914 as resistance and 1.3830 as support.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales represent a hefty part of the entire US consumer spending and are considered a market mover which can drastically affect the pair’s behavior. For today’s release an increase is anticipated from the previous value of -0.4% to 0.2% and usually better than expected numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

For a long time we expected a break of either support or resistance and yesterday the pair moved briefly below 1.6600. However the break could not be sustained by the bears and price moved quickly to the upside.

2014.03.13-US-Retail-Sales-the-incentive

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The fact that yesterday price tried to break the important support located at 1.6600 but failed and quickly returned above it indicates that bears are not ready yet to take control of the pair. To the upside, the first level of interest remains 1.6650 while 1.6600 is still support which could generate a bounce higher if it’s not broken today. We remain neutral until a clear break occurs.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases so we consider the US event to be the main market mover of the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[size=small][B][I]Forex New: Support levels threatened again

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex New: The pair had a wild day yesterday, characterized by Euro Zone optimism which took price higher but was soon followed by a sharp reversal triggered partly by a better than expected value of the US Retail Sales.

2014.03.14-Support-levels-threatened-aga

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Yesterday price printed a new high at 1.3965 but the Dollar strengthened after the US data came out and 1.3914 (previous high) was broken to the down side. The latest fall opens the door for a break of 1.3830 support, a fact which would represent a major victory for the bears. Note that the drop didn’t occur immediately after the release of the US Retail Sales so technical reasons, not only fundamental were responsible for it, a fact which makes us believe that high prices were hard to sustain, the bullish trend was overextended and the market was in need of a strong move to the south which may turn into a full scale reversal.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 07:00 am GMT the German Final Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.2%. The indicator is Germany’s main inflation gauge but it is usually overshadowed by the Preliminary version which is released about 15 days earlier; however, higher values have the potential to strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to increase from the previous 81.2 to 81.9; higher levels of consumer confidence are indicative of future increases in consumer spending which is vital for the economy so US Dollar strength is anticipated if higher values will be posted.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls on the back of speculation that Bank of England will raise the Interest Rate sooner than estimated but the day finished with a stronger US Dollar and a bearish move which nullified the Pound’s previous gains.

2014.03.14-Support-levels-threatened-aga

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The recent encounter with the support located at 1.6600 resulted in a bounce higher which broke 1.6650 decisively to the upside; however, the rally was sharply reversed and price moved lower, in close vicinity to 1.6600. All this goes to show that indecision still rules the pair but the bears can make a decisive move today if they manage to break 1.6600 support and finish the week below it. We slightly favor this scenario and anticipate a break of 1.6600 but we acknowledge the fact that bulls still have underlying strength and may take the pair north.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom releases the Trade Balance today at 09:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and higher readings are beneficial for the Pound. Today’s expected value is -8.7B while the previous was -7.7B but the indicator is not considered a market mover and the impact is usually mild. The US Confidence indicator will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement as well.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[size=small][B][I]Forex Technical Analysis: Bearish pressure is building up. Fundamentals hold center-stage

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex Technical Analysis: Trading was affected last week by growing tensions regarding the Ukraine crisis which generated choppy price action and a lot of reversals. US economic data was mixed and contributed to the pair’s lack of clear direction.

2014.03.17-2014.03.23-Bearish-pressure-i

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The fact that bulls managed to keep price above 1.3830 for an entire week and also printed a new high at 1.3965, shows that the uptrend is still not exhausted. If this new high will be broken again this week, the next level of interest to the upside is the psychological resistance located at 1.4000 which is also a big round number and this kind of levels tend to have great importance for price action. Although the pair is in an uptrend, a move below 1.3830 would be proof of bear-strength and would make 1.3710 the next target of the week.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The first day of the week brings us the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is the most important gauge of inflation but it tends to have a limited impact on the pair because the German CPI (which accounts for the major part of European inflation) was already released. Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the main European event while the US will release the Consumer Price Index which, as mentioned before, has high inflationary implications.

Wednesday has the potential to be the most volatile day of the week and all eyes will be on the US for the release of the Interest Rate, FOMC’s Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference. The press conference is likely to be a huge market mover, especially in its second part when Janet Yellen will answer audience questions. The Fed will also decide whether they will further adjust the monetary stimulus program or not, an issue which has been a top concern of market participants and is likely to generate tremendous volatility.

Thursday the US Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released, offering insights into the situation of the housing market and the progress of the manufacturing sector. The last important event of the week comes out Friday in the form of the Euro Zone Trade Balance which shows the difference between imported and exported goods. The impact of this indicator is not always high, especially if the actual number is close to the forecast.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The beginning of last week was characterized by a strong move lower which took the pair close to 1.6600 support but for the rest of the week, the bears struggled without success to continue the move and break the mentioned level.

2014.03.17-2014.03.23-Bearish-pressure-i

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The balance of power starts to shift in favor of the bears although the pair is still in a range defined by 1.6750 resistance and 1.6600 support. Important to note is the fact that last week price moved up after a touch of 1.6600 but the bears quickly took it back down, resulting in a Daily pin candle (Thursday). Pin bars usually indicate rejection and in this particular case, a move south is expected, but the fundamental aspect of the week will have an important role and may change this scenario.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday in London at the Annual Mais Lecture. His speeches are potential market movers and the market often reacts to his attitude or to clues about future interest rates. Wednesday the Band of England will make public the Minutes of their latest Meeting; the Claimant Count Change which is released the same day will offer insights into the British jobs situation. These are the main events for the Pound but the pair will be directly affected by the US data released throughout the week.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[size=small][B][I]Forex News: A strong move is almost imminent

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Monday’s trading session was characterized by an irregular market and although the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index posted a lower than anticipated value, the pair moved higher. Following a weekend referendum, Crimea decided to join Russia, a fact which escalated tensions between the West and the East, creating a difficult trading environment.

2014.03.18-A-strong-move-is-almost-immin

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Technical Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index don’t offer a lot of clues regarding the pair’s next move and lately the pair has been ranging and reversing a lot. Rumors and speculation drive price rather than technical reasons and that’s why extra caution is needed in periods like these. The main levels of importance remain 1.3965 as resistance and 1.3830 as major support but our bias for the pair is neutral.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released today at 10:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from 55.7 to 52.8. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as the indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors who are highly informed about the political situation of the country due to the nature of their jobs. At 12:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which acts as the main inflation gauge and has the ability to influence strongly the pair’s movement. For today’s release a decrease is expected, from the previous 1.6% to 1.2% but usually higher values are beneficial for the greenback.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Although the American Industrial Production indicator posted better numbers, the bulls couldn’t make a decisive move and yesterday’s price action was characterized by a bounce off 1.6600 which failed to be continued to the upside and encountered resistance at 1.6650.

2014.03.18-A-strong-move-is-almost-immin

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

For yet another day the pair struggled to move outside the small range created between 1.6650 and 1.6600 but failed to do so. Usually after extended periods of relative inactivity, price tends to move strongly so the next clear breakout will most likely be a real one. We still favor slightly the short side so if 1.6600 will be broken, we believe the move will be continued lower.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic indicator releases but BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak today in London at 5:45 pm GMT. Although this is not a high-profile speech, volatility may be experienced at the time. The US events and tensions in Crimea will affect the pair’s movement as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[size=small][B][I]Forex News: Slow movement ahead of Manufacturing data

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Friday we had a slow trading session, with price retracing higher as anticipated but the lack of major economic data releases translated into a movement of less than 50 pips for the entire day. Overall, it was a calm end to a very busy week.

2014.03.24-Slow-movement-ahead-of-Manufa

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

From a Daily chart perspective, the market is in a clear uptrend, however on the lower time frames, a down trend is starting to form. For today’s trading session we anticipate moves lower and a potential break of the support zone created around 1.3760, a fact which would open the door for a touch of 1.3710 major support. To the up side, the first major resistance sits at 1.3830 but we don’t expect a bullish break of this level unless surprising numbers are posted for today’s economic indicators.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 8:30 am GMT Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMI which is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector. The anticipated figure is 54.7, a slight decrease from the previous 54.8 and under normal circumstances, better than anticipated values are beneficial for the Euro. The US Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 1:45 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 56.6, a decrease from the previous 57.1. Similar to the German PMI, better numbers can strengthen the currency and take the pair lower.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The pair moved mostly sideways during Friday’s trading session, a fact which was mainly due to the lackluster fundamental scene and lack of economic indicator releases.

2014.03.24-Slow-movement-ahead-of-Manufa

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Price traded for the entire Friday session very close to the support created at 1.6480, in a very small range, a fact which doesn’t offer a lot of hints about today’s potential direction. However, lately the bears have been in control of the pair and the chart doesn’t show strong signs of bullish moves so we anticipate a break of 1.6480 minor support if the US Manufacturing PMI doesn’t post a surprising number.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Pound has a slow day in terms of economic indicator releases and the focus will be on the US data and on the technical aspect of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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[size=small][B][I]Forex News: Technical factors overshadowed by political turmoil

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Yesterday an emergency G7 meeting was held in The Hague to discuss potential sanctions against Russia for the takeover of Crimea and this triggered a strong move up which took the pair above 1.3830.

2014.03.25-Technical-factors-overshadowe

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Before the G7 meeting, the pair moved lower on the back or worse than expected German data but now the picture is unclear once again. The rise was not generated entirely by technical reasons so the break of 1.3830 can be a false one and price is likely to move below this level once again if things calm down on the political scene. The support located at 1.3760 was touched for a second time today without being broken so now its importance has increased and a potential break will weigh more for short term price action; however, if the bulls can maintain price above 1.3830 the bearish momentum will start to fade away.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Two important indicators are released today: the first is the German Ifo Business Climate which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 7,000 businesses and has the potential to take the pair higher if better values are posted. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.9, a slight decrease from last month’s 111.3. The second indicator is the US Consumer Confidence which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT with an estimated increase to 78.7 from the previous 78.1. If consumers are optimistic about economic conditions, they are likely to spend more and consumer spending is of crucial importance to the US economy so higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Price moved mostly sideways before the G7 meeting but a fast rise ended this calm behavior. The US data didn’t have a notable impact on the pair and the highlight of the day was the whipsaw seen during the G7 meeting.

2014.03.25-Technical-factors-overshadowe

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The technical aspect of the market is overshadowed at the moment by the political developments but it is important to acknowledge the fact that bulls couldn’t sustain the high price generated by the G7 meeting. This shows us that bears still have underlying strength and that lower prices are a distinct possibility. The first support is located at 1.6480 while resistance sits at 1.6600 but our technical bias is neutral considering the current political situation.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom announces today at 9:30 am GMT the Consumer Price Index which is the prime inflation gauge and is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made. A higher inflation can determine the BoE to raise the interest rate and this is the reason why higher than expected values for today’s release can strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. The anticipated value is 1.7%, a decrease from the current 1.9%. The pair will be directly affected by the US releases and by political events.

 
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker[/url].[/size]

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