GDMFX 0 Report post Posted January 30, 2015 FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN GDP COULD BRING THE SELLERS IN CONTROL ONCE AGAIN EUR/USD Forex News: Although German inflation figures disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -1.0%, the Euro climbed during the first part of the day but overall we had a slow trading session, with some bearish movement in the second part. Technical Outlook We continue to favor the short side and we anticipate a break of 1.1290 to the downside. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart are starting to curve downwards, agreeing with our bias. The next important support is located around 1.1114, but this price is not likely to be reached today unless surprising developments occur.Fundamental Outlook The Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced at 10:00 am GMT; the forecast is a change of -0.5% while the previous was -0.2% and such a drop would further weaken the Euro. The U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of U.S. economic performance, will be announced at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 3.0% and any value above this will be beneficial for the greenback.GBP/USD The Pound weakened substantially against the US Dollar yesterday and the bears managed to break the uptrend line and to pierce 1.5035 support. Technical Outlook The support at 1.5035 was pierced but is not clearly broken and the Relative Strength Index is oversold. These two facts make us believe that price will pull back higher before breaking support decisively. If support is broken while the Relative Strength index is oversold, price will probably return to re-test the level from below, a fact which may clear the oversold condition.Fundamental Outlook The Net Lending to Individuals is the only notable event coming out of the United Kingdom today. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected value is 3.2B; higher figures suggest that people feel comfortable spending money and this indicates that consumer spending will probably increase in the near future. All this would have a positive effect on the Pound and would take the pair higher but the event usually produces just medium impact. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 2, 2015 FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF BRITISH AND AMERICAN MANUFACTURING DATA EUR/USD Forex News : European inflation data that came out Friday was worse than expected but the American Gross Domestic Product also disappointed and this contributed to the day’s slow movement. Technical Outlook The support at 1.1290 was pierced but we cannot consider it broken until a re-test from below occurs. The Relative Strength Index is moving in the middle of the range, without clear direction but the Stochastic is crossing upwards, coming out of oversold area and this suggests that we might see bullish price action; however, a clear break of 1.1290 would put the sellers back in control.Fundamental Outlook The Spanish Unemployment numbers come out at 8:00 am GMT, with an expected change of -32.4K compared with last month’s -64.4K. Lower numbers show that less people are unemployed and this is usually beneficial for the Euro. At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about current and future economic conditions in the manufacturing sector. Higher values than the anticipated 54.9 are usually beneficial for the US Dollar and take the pair lower.GBP/USD Trading was mixed Friday for the Pound-Dollar pair and we saw a quick reversal after what appeared to be a good break of short term support. Technical Outlook Price is still confined between 1.5100 resistance and 1.5035 support and action is likely to be unclear until either one of these levels is broken. The break will have increased chances to generate additional movement in that direction if it is followed by a re-test and a bounce. However, the direction will be mainly influenced by the economic indicators released today.Fundamental Outlook The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT with an expected value of 52.9. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and usually higher values strengthen the Pound. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 3, 2015 FOREX NEWS: PRICE CONFINED IN TIGHT RANGES. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED EUR/USD Forex News: American Manufacturing data disappointed yesterday and the US Dollar lost its appeal. The pair climbed but price action was choppy for most of the day. The release of the Spanish Unemployment numbers was rescheduled for today.Technical Outlook The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is confined in a very tight range, being caped to the downside by 1.1290 support and by 1.1365 to the upside. Lately 1.1365 acts as short term resistance and we anticipate a bounce lower, with the first target being 1.1290. However, price is just moving sideways and this kind of movement doesn’t offer enough hints about immediate direction. Since the main downtrend is intact, we have a bearish bias.Fundamental Outlook At 8:00 am GMT the Spanish Unemployment numbers are released and expected to show a change of 83.4K compared with last month’s -64.4. Initially the release was scheduled for yesterday and the forecast value was also a lot different. This might not affect the indicator’s impact but use caution nonetheless.GBP/USD The pair showed some sharp reversals yesterday, especially on the lower time frames. British Manufacturing data came out close to analysts’ expectations and this added to the choppy movement.Technical Outlook Price came very close to 1.5100 resistance before reversing and moving below 1.5035 support. Although this support is not decisively broken, the short term bias is bearish because the pair bounced at resistance and is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price doesn’t move above 1.5035, the first target is represented by 1.4950.Fundamental Outlook The British Construction PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT; the anticipated value is 56.9 (57.6 previous) and higher numbers will probably strengthen the Pound as this survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 4, 2015 FOREX NEWS: THE WEEK’S FIRST U.S. JOBS-RELATED DATA DECIDES SHORT TERM BIAS EUR/USD Forex News: The pair broke resistance yesterday and continued to rally without any particular fundamental reason. Spanish Unemployment claims came out better than expected but the event didn’t play a major role in yesterday’s price action. Technical Outlook The recent rally broke 1.1365 short term resistance and took price in close vicinity of 1.1460, shifting momentum towards the bulls. However, the move is not backed by strong fundamentals and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have reached overbought territory. These things make us believe that the recent bullish move will not extend much further. A clear break of 1.1460 followed by a successful re-test could mean that price is set for new advances north.Fundamental Outlook At 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc., a privately owned company will release their version of the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and often offers hints about the Government data which will be released two days later. The impact can be quite strong, especially if the numbers differ from analysts’ expectations. Higher values than the anticipated 224K usually strengthen the US Dollar.GBP/USD The US Dollar weakened against the British Pound as well and the pair moved comfortably above 1.5100 resistance. The British Construction PMI showed a higher number but the release was not the cause of the rally. Technical Outlook Recent price action created short term support around 1.4990. We consider 1.4990 support because as we saw yesterday the pair rallied strongly after bouncing off of this level. Now that 1.5100 was broken, the bulls are likely to take price into 1.5200 resistance but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on an hourly chart and this might hinder future advances to the north. A touch of 1.5100 from above is very probable.Fundamental Outlook The British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the anticipated 56.6 can strengthen the Pound but the indicator is not known to be a strong market mover and the U.S. jobs data will probably have a stronger impact. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 6, 2015 [SIZE="14"][B][I]FOREX NEWS: US NON FARM PAYROLLS STEAL THE HEADLINES AGAIN EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The first part of yesterdays trading session was controlled by the sellers who managed to take price below 1.1365. Later in the day a disappointing value of the U.S. Trade Balance weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to climb. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The resistance at 1.1460 managed to stop yesterdays rally and this might suggest that price is about to turn to the downside. However, all moves are quickly reversed lately and the picture is unclear; we slightly favor bearish moves but we acknowledge the fact that todays price direction will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls. The levels to watch are 1.1460 as resistance and 1.1290 as support. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Without a doubt the most important event of the day is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change scheduled at 1:30pm GMT. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and is widely considered the most important employment related data for the United States. Levels of employment and consumer spending are closely tied together because people with jobs spend more than unemployed ones, so a higher than anticipated number for todays release will most likely strengthen the greenback. The forecast is 236K while the previous value was 252K. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] As anticipated the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and the event didnt have a strong impact but US Dollar weakness generated a break of resistance, putting the bulls in short term control. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Yesterdays rally paused at 1.5315, turning this level into minor resistance. The gap seen a few weeks back happened around this level as well and this adds to the possibility of it becoming resistance, but its strength is not yet tested. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, increasing the chances of bearish moves but price direction today will be directly correlated with the US employment data. If 1.5315 is broken, the next resistance is located at 1.5540; first potential support sits at 1.5260. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Since the United Kingdom didnt schedule high impact data releases, the days market mover will be the US Non Farm Payrolls.[/SIZE] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 9, 2015 [SIZE="14"][I][B]FOREX NEWS: G20 MEETINGS BRING TOGETHER THE WORLDS KEY PEOPLE. CURRENCIES REACT EUR/USD[/B][/I] Forex News: Friday all eyes were focused on the U.S. employment numbers. The NFP release showed that more jobs were created than analysts expected and this strengthened the US Dollar, taking the pair close to support. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the long term trend is down so today we expect further movement south. First minor support is located at 1.1300 but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on an hourly chart so we anticipate small moves to the upside before support can be broken decisively. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first form of resistance. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The G20 (Group of 20) Meetings take place today, attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. The meetings are closed to the press but an official statement will be released at the end of the event. Sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and this can generate volatility on the currency market. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The better than expected figure for the US Non Farm Payrolls and the US Dollar strength generated took the pair lower Friday, after an initial move above minor resistance. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Positive U.S. data combined with an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index triggered a move below 1.5260. Lately the bulls have made good advances but the overall trend is bearish so today we might see price move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Our bias is slightly bearish, but we anticipate a climb before price can move south. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The G20 meetings will be the days main event as the United Kingdom doesnt release any major economic or financial indicator.[/SIZE] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 10, 2015 FOREX NEWS: BRITISH MANUFACTURING DATA AND ESTIMATED GDP DECIDE POUND DIRECTION EUR/USD Forex News: The pair had a pretty calm trading session yesterday, with price oscillating between support and resistance. The G20 meetings did not generate substantial moves. Technical Outlook Price action was confined between 1.1270 support and 1.1360 resistance and it seems like the pair is under bearish pressure. Today we expect a break of 1.1270 minor support and a move towards 1.1100 area. However, if price moves above 1.1360 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect the bulls to continue higher but we don’t believe 1.1500 will be threatened unless surprise developments take place.Fundamental Outlook The day lacks major releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the second day of the G20 meetings could generate sudden moves.GBP/USD Price action yesterday was mostly bearish and price touched both support and resistance, without managing to break either of them. Technical Outlook As long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our short term bias is bearish in anticipation of a break of 1.5200 support. Although we favor the short side, a break of 1.5260 would most likely take the pair into 1.5315 minor resistance. During the day watch for overbought/oversold conditions of the RSI as the pair is not in a strong trend and this increases the chances of reversals after an extreme reading (above 70/below 30).Fundamental Outlook The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector and values above the forecast 0.3% usually strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR GDP Estimate comes out. The previous value was 0.6% and numbers above it are normally beneficial for the Pound because this estimate is usually very accurate. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 11, 2015 FOREX NEWS: GEOPOLITICAL TURMOIL AS KEY PERSONALITIES ARE MEETING TO DISCUSS GREECE AND UKRAINE CRISES EUR/USD Forex News: The pair had another slow day and remained confined between support and resistance after another failed attempt to break out. No major indicators were released and this contributed to the choppy price action. Technical Outlook A breakout is highly probable today but the direction is hard to predict considering this week’s slow movement. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 as resistance; if these are broken the pair will travel towards 1.1500 or 1.1100, depending on the initial breakout direction. Geopolitical factors will play a crucial role and the technical side will be secondary.Fundamental Outlook The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine will meet today in an attempt to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict. The outcome of the negotiations can have major implications on the currency market thus caution is highly recommended. The ECOFIN Meetings also take place today and the highlight will be the negotiation for the Greek debt issue. So far a conclusion hasn’t been reached and a new deal for Greece hasn’t been struck but if today we see some new developments, the Euro is likely to react swiftly.GBP/USD The Pound had a slow day as well and is now struggling to break resistance after a bounce at support. The GDP estimate was released 25 minutes earlier than initially scheduled but the event didn’t create a lot of movement and the same goes for manufacturing data. Technical Outlook Price bounced twice at 1.5200 support and is now sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on both an hourly and a four-hour chart. This puts short term bias in favor of the bulls but 1.5260 resistance is still not broken so we might very well see a rebound lower. A breakout is highly probable, with the first bullish target located at 1.5315. A break of 1.5200 support will open the door for 1.5100.Fundamental Outlook The ECOFIN Meetings will be the day’s highlight but the United Kingdom didn’t schedule other major news releases. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 12, 2015 FOREX NEWS: A STRONG BREAKOUT IS LOOMING. BRITISH INFLATION REPORT AHEAD EUR/USD Forex News: The pair remained inside the range yesterday as the current geopolitical situation still remains tense and no decisive action was taken. Technical Outlook Our view on the pair remains neutral, in anticipation of a breakout which is long overdue. The direction of this breakout will be decided by any new developments coming from Greece and Ukraine. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 resistance and considering that price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly and four-hour chart, we slightly favor the short side.Fundamental Outlook U.S. Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to post a change of -0.3% compared with last month’s -0.9%. Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity and that’s why values that exceed expectations are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The indicator is considered high-impact so we might get a breakout after its release.GBP/USD The Pound-Dollar moved stronger yesterday but we saw a sharp whipsaw once 1.5300 resistance was touched and this made trading rather difficult on the lower time frames. Technical Outlook What appeared to be a very strong break of 1.5260 resistance soon turned out to be just a single move which was quickly reversed at 1.5300 resistance. If the bears can keep price below 1.5260, it would mean that 1.5200 will be the next immediate target. Inflation-related data and Mark Carney’s press conference will probably decide the next short term price direction.Fundamental Outlook At 10:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains an outlook on economic performance and inflation for the next 2 years. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at the same time, discussing the contents of the Report and we recommend caution if trading during the conference because inflation is always a sensible issue and sharp moves may be present. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2015 FOREX NEWS: BROKEN RESISTANCE OPENS THE DOOR FOR FURTHER ADVANCES EUR/USD Forex News: The pair finally broke out of the tight range, mostly due to a disappointing U.S. Retail Sales report which showed a -0.8% change compared with the expected -0.4%. Technical Outlook Although 1.1360 resistance is broken, price is likely to return in that area for a re-test, considering the overbought condition showed by the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart. If the touch will result in a bounce higher, the next target is located at 1.1500 but a return below 1.1360 would indicate that the ranging period is still not over and will open the door for a move back into 1.1270 zone.Fundamental Outlook The German Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT and an increase is anticipated from the previous 0.1% to 0.3%. This would strengthen the Euro since the German economy is of major importance to the entire Euro zone and the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to show a value of 98.2, almost unchanged from last month’s 98.1. Higher values are usually beneficial for the US Dollar as consumer sentiment is tightly correlated to consumer spending.GBP/USD Mark Carney’s speech together with the Inflation Report generated Pound strength although the event contained some mixed – even contradictory – signals regarding inflation and a potential rate cut. Technical Outlook The Relative Strength Index moved well above the 70 level, signaling an overbought condition of price. This means that we might see bearish retracements which will most likely find support near 1.5340 zone, followed by 1.5300. The next important resistance is located around 1.5540 but we don’t expect such a move unless surprising developments take place.Fundamental Outlook The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus price direction will be decided by technical factors and by the U.S Consumer Sentiment. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 16, 2015 FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS AND GREEK DEBT TAKE CENTER STAGE EUR/USD Forex News: The German Gross Domestic Product surpassed analysts’ expectations Friday and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed but despite all this, the day lacked clear direction and no major advances were made. Technical Outlook Latest price action created minor resistance at 1.1440 and now the pair is headed towards 1.1360. Although last week was bullish, the advance is not strong and a move into support is very likely, especially if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the downside. Overall we expect a slow day due to the lack of major economic announcements, but if new developments for the Greek debt issue take place, we will most likely see strong moves.Fundamental Outlook The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by key personalities from the financial and political scene. The Greek debt issue will be discussed and will play an important role for today’s price direction. Keep in mind that the meetings are closed to the press but sometimes information is leaked throughout the day and an official statement is released once the meetings finish. U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating President’s Day thus no major economic indicators are released.GBP/USD The pair had an almost flat day Friday and neither side made any advances. U.S. consumer data came out below analysts’ expectations but this wasn’t enough to create directional movement. Technical Outlook If price touches 1.5420 again but the bulls cannot break it on the first try, we expect price to drop below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and to head towards 1.5340. A break of this level would expose 1.5300 support but we don’t expect a break of this level to happen today. Since the end of last month the pair has been in an uptrend so a bullish bounce at 1.5340 is not out of the question.Fundamental Outlook The day lacks British economic indicators thus price action will be driven by the technical aspect. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 17, 2015 FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP FOR BRITISH INFLATION AND GERMAN ZEW SURVEY EUR/USD Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and the pair lacked strong directional movement as U.S. banks were closed in observance of Presidents’ Day and at least at the time of writing, a clear solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been reached. Technical Outlook The minor resistance at 1.1440 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the same is true for the support at 1.1360. For the time being the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is offering good support from a short time perspective; a clean break of this line will open the door for a touch of 1.1360 while a bounce and consequent break of 1.1440 will make 1.1500 the next target.Fundamental Outlook At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and numbers above the anticipated 56.2 usually strengthen the Euro.GBP/USD The picture remains unclear for the Pound-Dollar as yesterday we saw a failed breakout, followed by a bearish move below 1.5420. Technical Outlook Current direction favors the bears and resistance is still holding so price is likely to continue moving down and to find support at 1.5340. If the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold by the time price touches support, we anticipate a bullish bounce and keep in mind that price is in a medium term uptrend so we might see continuation moves above 1.5420.Fundamental Outlook The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:30 and is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. The indicator is the main gauge of British inflation and usually lower numbers than analysts’ forecast are detrimental for the Pound so we might see down moves if this comes true. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 18, 2015 FOREX NEWS: GREEK ISSUE STILL UNSOLVED, FED MEETING MINUTES AHEAD EUR/USD Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the first part of the session but erased some of the losses once the German ZEW came out with a better value than previous. Although analysts anticipated a stronger climb, it is still the highest in a year and this added some fuel to the single currency. Technical Outlook Despite the Euro strength generated by the ZEW value, the bulls couldn’t break 1.1440 and the pair started to move south once again. The Greek debt problem is still not solved and this is one of the reasons why the market is still searching for a clear direction. Today we expect another touch of 1.1360 support but our view is mostly neutral as price direction still remains heavily influenced by the Greek talks.Fundamental Outlook The most important event for the US Dollar is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. It will contain details of the Fed’s latest meeting and more importantly, it can offer hints about future monetary policy direction. If this is the case, the market will react swiftly and the greenback will show strong movement.GBP/USD The British Consumer Price Index met analysts’ forecast, showing a change of 0.3% and this created mixed reaction. The bulls failed to threaten resistance and the bears are looking stronger for the time being. Technical Outlook Current momentum belongs to the bears as they managed to take price below 1.5340 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. If bearish pressure mounts, today we expect a touch of 1.5260 but 1.5300 could be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. A bounce above 1.5340 would probably generate an extended move into 1.5420.Fundamental Outlook At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count Change is released. The anticipated figure is -25.2K and usually lower numbers are beneficial for the currency because the indicator shows how many people applied for unemployment-related benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will announce a breakdown of their latest rate votes but usually this event only creates strong movement if one or more of the MPC members changed their stance. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 24, 2015 FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUT IMMINENT. SPEECHES AND TESTIMONIES HOLD THE HEADLINES EUR/USD Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value below analysts’ expectations and the euro weakened as a result. However the pair remained in ranging mode and neither support nor resistance was broken. Technical Outlook A breakout is imminent but the direction remains uncertain; the important levels for short-term price action remain 1.1440 as resistance and 1.1270 as support. A break of either of them will mark the end of the ranging period but since price came in close vicinity of support and couldn’t break it, we expect a bounce higher which can find resistance at 1.1440. However, until a clear break occurs, our view remains neutral on this pair.Fundamental Outlook ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak today at the official unveiling of the 20 Euro banknote. The event takes place in Frankfurt at 2:00 pm GMT and is followed at 3:00 pm GMT by Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony is likely to generate more volatility, depending on her altitude and answers. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to show a drop to 99.6 from the previous 102.9. Consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending so a higher than anticipated value will strengthen the US Dollar.GBP/USD The British CBI Realized Sales posted a surprisingly low value of 1 while analysts’ expected 42. This initially generated Pound weakness but a remarkable reversal occurred soon after, without any apparent reason. Technical Outlook After bouncing at 1.5420 the pair headed into the support located at 1.5340 as expected, but here a near perfect bounce occurred, followed by a climb of more than 100 pips. Currently the bulls are trying to break 1.5460 and if they succeed, the door will be open for an extended move into 1.5540 resistance. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, a fact which may hinder further bullish movement for the time being. The first potential support is located at 1.5420.Fundamental Outlook At 10:00 am GMT the British Inflation Report Hearings take place. Bank of England Governor and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on economic growth and inflation. The hearings last a few hours during which volatility may increase and sharp moves can occur so caution is recommended. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 25, 2015 FOREX NEWS: THE MARATHON OF TESTIMONIES CONTINUES. VOLATILITY EXPECTED EUR/USD Forex News: Janet Yellen’s testimony yesterday triggered mixed up and down movement as she mentioned that the Fed is expecting inflation to rise to 2% but a rate hike is unlikely to happen during the next two Fed meetings. The range was not broken. Technical Outlook The pair is still trading inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1440 resistance and 1.1270 support, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the 2 oscillators moving almost flat on a four hour chart. If price approaches support again and fails to break it, we anticipate a move into 1.1440 resistance but given the sideways movement seen lately, our view remains mainly neutral.Fundamental Outlook Today at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify again, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The speech and the questions she will receive are likely to generate strong and even mixed market reaction so we recommend caution. At 4:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. All his public speeches can easily create volatility but price direction is usually determined by his attitude and answers.GBP/USD The British Inflation Report hearings went mostly unnoticed yesterday and the strongest movement was seen at the time of Yellen’s testimony. Technical Outlook The resistance at 1.5460 is still holding but so is the minor support at 1.5420. A move outside this 40 pips range is very likely to occur today and considering that price made several unsuccessful attempts to break resistance, we consider that the chances of a bullish break have decreased. If the pair can move below 1.5420, we expect a touch of the support at 1.5340.Fundamental Outlook The British Bankers’ Association will release today at 9:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals. This indicator offers insights into the British house market and usually higher numbers than the forecast 36.2K are beneficial for the Pound. Half an hour later BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a public speech at the launch of the One Bank Research Agenda but the impact on the currency market is likely to be mild. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 26, 2015 [SIZE="14"][B][I]FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN INFLATION DATA AND U.K. GDP THE DAYS MAIN MARKET MOVERS EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The testimonies of Yellen and Draghi did not create the anticipated volatility and the pair had another slow, choppy day. Both support and resistance are still intact and the ranging period is still not over. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Although its mostly flat, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer a minimum of resistance as seen from yesterdays price action. However, the pair is moving sideways and lately it isnt even trying to break the resistance at 1.1440 or the support at 1.1270. Until a clean break of the mentioned levels occurs, the pairs movement will remain choppy and unpredictable. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] American inflation data will be todays main event. The US Consumer Price Index, which is the primary gauge of inflation will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to change -0.6%, compared with the previous -0.4%. Fed Chair Yellen mentioned during a previous testimony that inflation is expected to grow towards 2.0%, but so far the numbers are still dropping; if today we see another dip, the US Dollar is likely to be negatively affected. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The British Bankers Association Mortgage Approvals came out close to the anticipated value but the Pound continued to strengthen throughout the day and major resistance was touched. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The resistance located at 1.5540 was touched yesterday and price quickly reacted by moving lower; the Relative Strength Index was overbought and this contributed to the bounce. Today we expect price to remain between 1.5540 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of either of them will probably determine the next medium term direction. Another bounce at resistance would imply that lower prices will follow. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 9:30 am GMT the second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released (forecast 0.5%) and can have a strong impact on the Pound since the GDP is an economys main performance gauge; however, this is the second version of the indicator and tends to have a lower impact than the Preliminary version.[/SIZE] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted February 27, 2015 FOREX NEWS: TRADERS’ ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS GERMAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN GDP AS BEARS REGAIN CONTROL EUR/USD Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the range it was confined in. American inflation increased as shown by the Core version of the CPI indicator. The Durable Goods Orders also showed an increase, contributing to US Dollar strength. Technical Outlook The break of 1.1270 support will play a major role for future price action if the bears can keep the pair below this level. Clearly the recent momentum belongs to the bears and we anticipate further movement south but a re-test of the broken level is very possible, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level, indicating oversold. Our current bias is bearish after brief retracements, with 1.1270 acting as potential resistance and 1.1100 as support.Fundamental Outlook The focus will shift today towards German inflation data which is released at 1:00 pm GMT. A hefty increase from the previous -1.1% to 0.6% is expected and if this forecast comes true, the euro will most likely strengthen. Half an hour later the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out; the anticipated change is 2.1% while the previous was 2.6%. Although the first version (Advance) is the most important, the Preliminary also has the potential to strongly move the currency; higher percentages are beneficial for the greenback.GBP/USD British Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and the event didn’t have a massive impact but the US data generated a sharp fall which broke several support levels. Technical Outlook The bulls tried to take price above 1.5540 – 1.5550 resistance but failed to do so and this was a sign that their strength is fading. The pair is now trading comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5460 but 1.5420 is not clearly broken yet. We expect price to move below this level, towards 1.5340 but before that can happen, a retracement higher is needed; adding to this opinion is the position of the Relative Strength Index which is signaling an oversold condition.Fundamental Outlook The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases today so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 2, 2015 FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM MOMENTUM FAVORS THE BEARS, EUROPEAN INFLATION TO DECIDE NEXT MOVE EUR/USD Forex News: Friday the pair was mostly controlled by the bears as the U.S. Gross Domestic Product exceeded analysts’ expectations, but some euro strength was also seen. The main reason for bullish moves was the German CPI which showed an increase. Technical Outlook The pair’s direction for the day will be influenced by European inflation numbers but if no surprises occur, we expect further downside movement after brief bullish pullbacks. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are moving slightly below their oversold levels and this increases the chances of upwards price action. First potential resistance is represented by Friday’s high located at 1.1245.Fundamental Outlook The European Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release today at 10:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.5%, better than the previous -0.6%. Current European inflation is considered too low compared with ECB’s target of just below 2.0% so another decrease would be detrimental for the single currency while an increase would strengthen the euro. U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a figure of 53.4, almost unchanged from the previous 53.5. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which acts as a leading indicator of optimism regarding the business conditions in the manufacturing sector; higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is not always strong.GBP/USD Friday price climbed back between support and resistance and overall we had a choppy session, with control shifting between bulls and bears. Technical Outlook The pair is confined between 1.5460 resistance and 1.5420 support but we expect this to change today. Price hit the 50 period Exponential Moving Average several times Friday but failed to surpass it and this shows that the bulls have run out of steam. Price direction for the day will be influenced by the U.S. and British data but we expect descent below 1.5420 en route to Friday’s low; a clean break above 1.5460 would decrease the chances of such a descent.Fundamental Outlook At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected figure is 53.5 and numbers above that can strengthen the Pound. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 3, 2015 FOREX NEWS: BULLS FADING AS SHORT TERM RESISTANCE GENERATES MOVES SOUTH EUR/USD Forex News: European inflation showed improvement yesterday and the single currency reacted accordingly by strengthening when the data came out. However, the second part of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears. Technical Outlook The pair climbed to touch Friday’s high located at 1.1245 but the level offered good resistance and price soon bounced lower. This adds to our bearish bias and we consider the next destination to be the support zone near 1.1100. The fact that the Stochastic is below 30 and the Relative Strength Index is also moving close to oversold could invalidate this scenario and could generate some bullish movement; however, if price does move north but 1.1270 is not broken, the chances of a move into 1.1100 will increase.Fundamental Outlook The Spanish Unemployment numbers are released at 8:00 am GMT and this will be the day’s main event. The indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people compared with the previous month and usually creates strong movement only if big differences are posted. For today’s release analysts expect a drop from the previous 78.0K to 10.5K and this would strengthen the euro because fewer unemployed people are beneficial for the economy.GBP/USD The British Manufacturing PMI came out slightly better than analysts anticipated and this triggered some mild Pound strength but soon after the release, the US Dollar erased the small Pound gains and the pair started to move south. Technical Outlook The pair moved below 1.5420 once again and then returned for a perfect re-test which resulted in a bounce lower; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is above price and the momentum belongs to the bears so we anticipate a touch of 1.5340 support. If the Relative Strength Index will become oversold by the time price reaches support, we expect small bullish bounces; the extent of these bounces is likely to be limited.Fundamental Outlook The British Construction PMI is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to slightly decrease from the previous 59.1 to 59.0. This is a leading indicator of economic health which usually has a medium impact on the currency but higher numbers are considered beneficial. Half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT, Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee and the impact on the currency market could be strong, depending on his attitude and answers. Caution is recommended. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 4, 2015 FOREX NEWS: FIRST U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE WEEK DECIDES DIRECTION EUR/USD Forex News: The Spanish unemployment numbers came out better than analysts expected but the event did not produce euro strength and the day had mixed price action, with no side being in clear control. Technical Outlook On an hourly chart it can be seen that price created minor support at 1.1155 and this level now represents the first obstacle in front of falling prices. Currently the pair is trapped between the mentioned support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is angled downward, suggesting that we will see further bearish action. If price moves above the moving average, we will most likely see a touch of 1.1245; otherwise the target remains the zone around 1.1100.Fundamental Outlook Europe will release its Retail Sales numbers today at 10:00 am GMT; a small decrease from the previous 0.3% to 0.2% is expected and this would weaken the euro but the event is not always a huge market mover. Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment is released, showing the change in the number of employed people according to Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) which is a privately owned company. Although the impact is not as strong as the one of the Government data which comes out 2 days later, higher numbers than the anticipated 219K can strengthen the US Dollar.GBP/USD A better than anticipated value of the British Construction PMI didn’t have a strong bullish impact on the Pound and yesterday price came in close vicinity of support before bouncing higher. Technical Outlook Similar to the euro, the sterling is trapped between horizontal support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the moving average will be surpassed, price will find resistance at 1.5420, followed by 1.5460 but the pair is under bearish pressure and this increases the chances of a break of 1.5340 support. Since the technical picture is not very clear, a lot will depend on the economic data released today.Fundamental Outlook At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the services sector. The indicator can have a mild impact especially if the actual number will be close to analysts’ expectations of 57.6. The U.S. employment data is likely to have a stronger impact on the pair than the Services PMI. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 5, 2015 FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL. BUCKLE UP FOR DRAGHI’S PRESS CONFERENCE EUR/USD Forex News: The bears scored a major victory yesterday and took price significantly lower, below the last important support. The economic data released had little impact on price action. Technical Outlook The support zone around 1.1100 was broken decisively yesterday and this means that price will not encounter notable support until 1.0765 is reached (visible on a Monthly chart). This level was last touched in 2003 so its importance cannot be assessed; the fact that it is far away from price also makes it less important at the moment. For the time being the bears are in control and we expect further downside movement after brief retracements.Fundamental Outlook The ECB will announce the interest rate at 12:45 pm GMT but because no change is anticipated (0.05%), the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later will be the day’s main event. Mario Draghi will discuss the reasons which determined the rate decision and will probably offer insights into the bond buying program. The single currency is likely to have a strong reaction to Draghi’s comments so caution is recommended.GBP/USD The Pound also weakened against the US Dollar and support was broken; a weaker British Services PMI also contributed to the drop. Technical Outlook Price moved through 1.5340 and 1.5300 with ease before pausing at 1.5260, making the medium term outlook bearish. We expect further downside movement after a brief stall at the current level. The Relative Strength Index is oversold and this increases the chances of bullish price action but the extent should be limited.Fundamental Outlook At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected); the last few rate announcements didn’t create a lot of volatility for the Pound, mainly because nobody is expecting a rate change and the BoE is not hinting towards such a change. We expect the same for today’s release but beware of any surprises. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 6, 2015 FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE UNITED STATES FOR THE NON FARM PAYROLLS RELEASE EUR/USD Forex news: The euro had another rough day yesterday on the back of Mario Draghi’s comments. The interest rate remained unchanged so the event went mostly unnoticed but the ECB press conference generated strong moves; the euro was initially strengthened by improved economic projections but soon after it dropped to fresh lows. Technical Outlook The bullish impulse seen at the beginning of the press conference took the pair into the level at 1.1114 which has now turned into resistance, considering that price bounced there. The bears remain in control and the pair is still under pressure, with support located at 1.1000. This is a psychological level (big round number), but also a technical support because yesterday’s drop stopped there. Today’s direction will be mostly dependent on the U.S. Employment numbers.Fundamental Outlook The U.S. Non Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to post a change of 240K compared with last month’s 257K. Job creation is tightly correlated with spending levels and that’s why rising employment is considered bullish for the US Dollar. The release creates strong volatility more often than not, thus caution is recommended.GBP/USD The Pound-Dollar had a quiet day; the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and this contributed to the lack of strong movement. Technical Outlook The pair moved and remained below 1.5260 which is now short term resistance. The Relative Strength Index is moving above its 30 level, coming from overbought territory and this favors bullish pullbacks but we don’t expect the bulls to show a lot of strength unless the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls offer surprises. The first support is located at 1.5200 but the day’s bias depends on the U.S. employment data.Fundamental Outlook The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic or financial news releases so the main event comes from the United States in the form of the Non Farm Payrolls. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 9, 2015 FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS TO AFFECT THE EURO AS U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES EUR/USD Forex News: Friday the Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase to 295K while analysts’ consensus was 240K thus the US Dollar strengthened substantially against the euro and the pair experienced a sharp selloff. Technical Outlook Although the bears are in complete control of the pair and 1.1000 support was broken, we expect bullish pullbacks mainly because the current move seems overextended and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory. The main bias is of course bearish so we will probably see further downside movement after brief retracements; 1.0765 is the next potential support level.Fundamental Outlook Important political and financial personalities will attend today the Eurogroup Meetings. The Greek bailout will be one of the topics thus euro volatility might be present. Other than this, the fundamental scene is slow and no major economic indicators are released.GBP/USD The US Dollar strengthened across the board and the Pound-Dollar pair dropped for more than 200 pips Friday on the back of a strong U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report. Technical Outlook The recent strength exhibited by the US Dollar is likely to continue throughout the week but bullish pullbacks are a distinct possibility today; however the extent of these bullish moves should be limited. Notable resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits at 1.4830 but both levels are far away from current price so we don’t expect either of them to be touched today; support and resistance levels should be identified on lower time frames (i.e. 15 minutes chart) but these are less reliable.Fundamental Outlook There are no major economic releases scheduled for today so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 10, 2015 FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PULLBACKS COMPLETE, SELLING PRESSURE MOUNTS EUR/USD Forex News: The euro posted modest gains against the US Dollar during the first part of yesterday’s trading session after hitting its lowest level since September 2003. However, in the second part of the session, the Dollar regained most of its strength. Technical Outlook Yesterday’s climb cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart and this allows further bearish movement, with 1.0820 being the first support zone. The bias remains negative for a break of the mentioned support, while first resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above it would suggest that the bulls are staging a deeper retracement but would not make the overall trend bullish.Fundamental Outlook The ECOFIN meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The impact of the meetings on the euro may be mild but surprises can occur, so caution is always recommended when this type of events take place.GBP/USD The Pound gained yesterday against the greenback and overall we had a bullish day but the downtrend remained intact and the climb was just a much-needed pullback. Technical Outlook Although the bulls took price higher yesterday, the pair remains in a clear downtrend and we anticipate the bearish movement to resume. The first target is located at 1.5030, which is now minor support; the overbought condition of the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) indicator will increase the chances of moves south. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average represents the first resistance and a place where downwards movement may resume.Fundamental Outlook Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee. The testimony is scheduled at 10:35 am GMT and the impact is unclear, depending on the matters discussed during the meeting and on the Governor’s attitude. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted March 11, 2015 FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND PAUSES BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH SOUTH EUR/USD Forex News: The US Dollar outperformed the euro for yet another day and important support was breached. Brief bullish pullbacks were seen but overall the bears are in clear control. Technical Outlook The level at 1.0765 was last touched in 2003 but it seems price is reacting to it because, as we saw yesterday, the pair traded above and below it successively. The main strength belongs to the bears and we expect the downtrend to continue but the first barrier in front of falling prices is located at 1.0720 (this is minor support and we expect it to be broken). A move back above 1.0765 would suggest that price is likely to move higher, close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.Fundamental Outlook ECB President Mario Draghi will speak today at a Conference organized in Frankfurt by the Center of Financial Studies. The early hour of the speech (8:00 am GMT) could cause limited impact on the currency market, but surprises can occur so caution is recommended nonetheless.GBP/USD Yesterday’s price action was mixed; the bears managed to take price into short-term support but they ran out of steam before being able to break it. This might be a sign that the downtrend is stalling. Technical Outlook The pair formed a double bottom at 1.5030. This is a bullish chart pattern and suggests that further upside movement might follow but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is likely to offer resistance and to push price lower if touched. The first horizontal resistance is located at 1.5130 but keep in mind the overall bias is bearish.Fundamental Outlook The British Manufacturing Production is released today at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with the previous 0.1%. The manufacturing sector is a major part of the British economy and increases could lead to a stronger Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, an estimate of U.K.’s Gross Domestic Product is released; the previous estimate was 0.7% and again, higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
