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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: TIGHT TRADING RANGE. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair remained almost flat yesterday, moving in a very narrow range. The US Non Manufacturing PMI posted a value that exceeded estimates, but its release didn’t create a lot of volatility although some strength was exhibited by the US Dollar.

2014.05.06-Tight-trading-range.-Breakout

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Yesterday’s ranging price action doesn’t help to determine the next direction and for the time being, we must wait for stronger moves which will reveal if the power lies with the bulls or with the bears. If price fails to move soon above 1.3900, it would be an indication that bears are entering the market and that 1.3830 will be touched again.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The day’s headline is the release of the US Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT) which represents the difference between imported and exported goods. A value above zero shows that United States exports surpass imports but the current value is -42.3 billion US Dollars, a clear deficit; the anticipated value is -40.1 billion US Dollars and any figures closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom banks were closed yesterday and the pair had similar movement to EUR/USD, trading in a small range, with some Dollar strength seen once positive data was posted by the US economy.

2014.05.06-Tight-trading-range.-Breakout

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Today we will most likely see stronger moves and we expect another attempt to break the level at 1.6880. After the top at 1.6920 was printed, the bulls didn’t manage to take price in that area again and this may be an indication that exhaustion is present and that bears are trying to take control of the pair. If today 1.6880 is not broken decisively, the first potential target is 1.6820.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 8:30 am GMT the Services PMI is released by the United Kingdom and expected to increase slightly from 57.6 to 57.9. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers from the services sector, which shows their optimism regarding business conditions so better than estimated values are beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: INTEREST RATES AND PUBLIC SPEECHES. VOLATILITY IS ALMOST CERTAIN

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Price action slowed down considerably yesterday compared to the previous day and we saw a small retracement lower which didn’t manage to touch 1.3900. Janet Yellen’s speech generated some volatility but was mostly overlooked by market participants.

2014.05.08-Interest-Rates-and-public-spe

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The picture remains bullish and moves north are favored after a touch of 1.3900. The Relative Strength Index is just coming out of overbought territory, heading down and that’s why we anticipate a touch of 1.3900 before price can resume upwards movement, headed for 1.3965. However, a lot depends on the ECB stance that will be presented today during the Press Conference.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce if any changes were made to the Interest Rate (currently 0.25%) and at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about future monetary policy direction. The Rate is not expected to change but the ECB Press Conference is considered one of the most important events for Euro’s short term movement so we recommend extra caution if trading during it. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify today before the Senate Budget Committee and this is another reason for increased volatility but the market’s reaction remains to be seen.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Similar to the Euro, the Pound retraced yesterday but the bearish move lacked strength and the market was mostly in a ranging state, with a lot of choppy price action.

2014.05.08-Interest-Rates-and-public-spe

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The Pound is showing tremendous strength lately and yesterday’s bearish movement was not convincing, but a touch of 1.6920 is not out of the question. If this touch occurs, it will most likely trigger a bounce higher and the first barrier in front of rising prices is the latest top created at 1.6996, followed by 1.7040 resistance.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Official Bank Rate which usually creates volatility even if no change takes place. The event is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT and no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%. Yellen’s testimony later in the day will have an impact as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The bears took control of the pair yesterday as ECB President Mario Draghi offered clear hints about an Interest Rate cut in June if the risk of deflation still persists. His comments took the pair almost 150 pips lower after a previous climb which nearly touched the psychological resistance at 1.4000.

image0011-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Without a doubt, Mario Draghi’s stance favors the bears for the medium term outlook. Today we expect a continuation of yesterday’s move and we are biased towards a touch of 1.3830. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart doesn’t indicate an oversold condition so price can move lower before a retracement higher occurs. To the upside, the first level of interest is 1.3900.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The German Trade Balance (difference in value between imports and exports) will be released today at 6:00 am GMT and it’s expected to increase from 15.7B to 16.9B. Figures that surpass estimates are considered bullish for the Euro, but the indicator is not a high impact one and its release may go unnoticed by the market.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Bank of England did not modify the Interest Rate, as anticipated and the pair traded mostly sideways, without clear direction.

image0031-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair moved yesterday in a small range and neither bulls nor bears made clear statements of power but we maintain our belief that 1.6920 will be touched before bullish moves can occur. Once that happens, a bounce-or-break scenario will be in play: a bounce will indicate trend resumption and another encounter with the top created at 1.6996, while a break will make 1.6880 the first lower target.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and higher values than the estimated 0.3% (previous was 1.0%) can push the Pound higher. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product will be announced. The current value is 0.9% and any higher number can push the pair north.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES STEAL THE HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: As expected, the pair had a calm and mostly sideways trading session yesterday. The bulls didn’t manage to take price significantly higher but at least they prevented the bears form making further advances.

2014.05.15-Consumer-Price-Indexes-steal-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Although price retraced slightly yesterday, the move wasn’t enough to clear the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index, a fact which makes further drops more difficult. Adding to this, bullish divergence is also present (price made a lower low while the RSI only printed a double bottom) so from a strictly technical perspective, moves north are in order. If these moves occur, they must be seen as retracements in a short term downtrend, not necessarily reversals.
[B][I]
Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Market participants eagerly await the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is Euro Zone’s main inflation gauge and the ECB is closely watching it before deciding if monetary stimulus measures will be adopted at their June meeting. The risk of deflation is present and a lower value of the CPI than the estimated 0.7% can weaken the Euro; the opposite applies for a higher value. United States’ CPI will be announced today as well, but its importance is lower than the one of the European CPI; the release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 0.3%.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is perceived as a high impact indicator which shows the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding economic and business conditions. The indicator is released at 2:00 pm GMT with an expected figure of 13.9, a decrease from the previous 16.6; higher values are considered bullish for the US Dollar.

[B][I]
GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Bank of England Inflation Report was less hawkish than expected and no hints about a near-future rate hike were given. The market perceived this as a dovish attitude of the BoE and as a result the pair had another bearish trading session.

2014.05.15-Consumer-Price-Indexes-steal-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair pierced through the support located at 1.6820 and even touched 1.6750. We expect bullish moves today even if the control belongs to the bears and we base this opinion on the fact that the current move is reaching an overextended phase and the Relative Strength Index is constantly touching the 30 level. Resistance sits at 1.6820 and if a touch of this level occurs, price is likely to bounce lower.
[B][I]
Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Pound has a calm day in terms of economic data releases so price action will be mostly affected by the technical aspect and by the US indicators mentioned above.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: A CALM END TO A WILD WEEK?

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The data released yesterday was mixed but more hints about a rate cut emerged as ECB officials signaled that the Bank is preparing a package of monetary policy measures. The Euro dropped but later in the day it managed to erase all Dollar gains, creating a massive reversal.

2014.05.16-A-calm-end-to-a-wild-week-pic

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

It looks like the bulls have renewed their interest for the pair, a fact which is normal considering the oversold condition of the market and the bullish divergence present on the four-hour chart. Once this retracement is complete, we expect price to resume downwards movement for another break of 1.3700 en route to 1.3640. The first level of interest that could provide resistance is located at 1.3745.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The greenback will be affected today by the release of the US Building Permits, an indicator which shows changes in the annualized number of permits issued during the preceding month. An increase suggests a thriving economy, considering that houses are usually built in times of good economic conditions. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the estimated number is 1.01M compared to the previous 1.0M.
The last important indicator of the week comes out at 1:55 pm GMT: the US Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and has the ability to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers than the anticipated 84.7 are posted.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The bears unsuccessfully attempted yesterday to break the support at 1.6750 but the bulls managed to finish the day higher, on the back of US Dollar weakness.

2014.05.16-A-calm-end-to-a-wild-week-pic

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Yesterday’s bullish move can be seen as a retracement in a short term downtrend but from a Daily chart perspective, we are still in an uptrend and the pair just touched the uptrend line drawn from November last year. In other words, the picture is not clear and different time frame charts say different things. What is certain is that support is still holding at the moment and the confluence zone created by the uptrend line and 1.6750 will be tough to break but if price moves below it, the bears will score a major victory.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Pound has a calm day ahead as no major indicators are released by the United Kingdom; price direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US events.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: WEIDMANN’S SPEECH – THE SINGLE HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Friday price moved in a small range and neither bulls nor bears managed to make a clear statement of power. US economic data was mixed but it didn’t have a major impact on the pair.

2014.05.19-Weidmanns-speech-the-single-h

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Lately the pair is moving above and below 1.3700 but if the bulls will manage to reverse the short term downtrend seen last week, the minor resistance that was created at 1.3730 will be the first barrier they need to break. To the south, first support sits at 1.3640 but the chances for it to be broken today are slim, considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days, especially if no major economic data is released.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The only event which can trigger strong movement today is the speech of German Bundesbank President Weidmann which is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT. He will speak at a Symposium organized in Frankfurt and if he reveals hints about the ECB’s next move, the market will react strongly as he is believed to be one of the most influential members of the ECB Governing Council.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The last day of the previous week was almost entirely controlled by the bulls and price traveled to touch the resistance at 1.6820. A disappointing figure for the US Consumer Sentiment played an important role in Friday’s climb.

2014.05.19-Weidmanns-speech-the-single-h

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair finished the week right on 1.6820 level but for the moment we cannot know for sure if this was due to price resistance or simply because the trading week ended and the market closed. This question will probably be answered today and we will see if 1.6820 has turned into resistance or if price will continue towards 1.6880. To the downside, 1.6750 remains strong support for the time being.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

We expect slow price action today since there are no important American or British economic releases, but maybe Weidmann’s speech will have a ripple effect which will influence this pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]THE FOREX MARKET: APPROACHING SUPPORT LEVELS – A GOOD PLACE FOR TREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

The Forex Market: Yesterday’s price action was mixed and rather ranging until the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes which generated a move lower which was not characterized by a strong or immediate continuation.

2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index was cleared by yesterday’s move lower but now an encounter with the level of 1.3710 is very probable. If this touch occurs, price is likely to bounce higher, continuing the latest bullish momentum. Moves below 1.3710 would indicate that the power of the bulls is fading and would make 1.3650 the next target.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Early at 08:00 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an almost insignificant decrease being anticipated: 56.4 from the previous 56.5. The indicator is derived from the opinions of managers from the manufacturing sector and it’s a leading sign of economic health so better numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the French Manufacturing PMI is released and it’s anticipated to increase from the previous 49.3 to 49.6. Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge and usually strengthens the US Dollar if higher than anticipated values are posted. Today’s expected value is 1.6% while the previous was 1.5%.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Before the FOMC Minutes, the pair tested 1.6665 support zone once again but bounced higher and the FOMC Minutes failed to trigger a break of support or a significant move higher.

2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

If the bearish impulse generated by yesterday’s US events cannot take price below 1.6665, we are likely to see higher prices. The pair already tested this support twice and didn’t succeed to break it so another failed attempt would increase the probability of uptrend resumption. Moves lower will shift the medium term balance of power in the favor of the bears only if 1.6600 is broken.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 11:00 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to increase from the previous -2 to 6, a fact which would fuel bullish movement but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market. Of course the US Consumer Price Index will directly affect the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD – VOLATILITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally decided to move with some determination and as a result, the level of 1.3700 was broken decisively. Volatility increased and hopefully it will remain this way.

2014.05.22-A-full-day-ahead-volatility-i

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The break of 1.3700 and the fact that price touched 1.3650 make the picture bearish once again, but for the short term downtrend to be renewed, we need to see a clear break of 1.3650 support. If this occurs, the next hurdle is located at 1.3560, followed by 1.3480. Medium term movement seems to favor bears more and more but we expect bullish price action once the Relative Strength Index moves below its 30 level.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released today at 7:00 am GMT and 7:30 am GMT respectively. Both are surveys which ask purchasing managers to rate the current and future business conditions and are leading indicators or economic health; better than estimated values usually strengthen the Euro. The consensus for the French PMI is 51.1 while the German PMI has an anticipated value of 54.0.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, offering insights into the American house market. Although this is regarded as a high impact indicator, its effect can be mild at times, mostly depending on the difference between the expected value and the actual one. Today an increase is forecast, from the previous 4.59M to 4.71M.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Pound strengthened substantially on renewed speculation that a rate increase might occur in the near future and on the back of a much better than expected value of the Retail Sales (forecast 0.4%, actual 1.3%).

2014.05.22-A-full-day-ahead-volatility-i

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

After the initial bullish impulse generated by the things mentioned above, the pair’s momentum started to fade away and price retraced lower. Immediately after the resistance at 1.6920 was touched, price reacted and this increases the importance of this level for short term movement; if 1.6920 resistance is broken, the door for a touch of 1.6996 is open and the uptrend may be renewed. For the time being, the most important support is located at 1.6820.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is announced today at 8:30 am GMT but is expected to remain unchanged from the current 0.8%; if this is the case, the release will have a mild impact but any changes can generate strong moves because the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]THE FOREX MARKET: APPROACHING SUPPORT LEVELS – A GOOD PLACE FOR TREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

The Forex Market: Yesterday’s price action was mixed and rather ranging until the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes which generated a move lower which was not characterized by a strong or immediate continuation.

2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index was cleared by yesterday’s move lower but now an encounter with the level of 1.3710 is very probable. If this touch occurs, price is likely to bounce higher, continuing the latest bullish momentum. Moves below 1.3710 would indicate that the power of the bulls is fading and would make 1.3650 the next target.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Early at 08:00 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an almost insignificant decrease being anticipated: 56.4 from the previous 56.5. The indicator is derived from the opinions of managers from the manufacturing sector and it’s a leading sign of economic health so better numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the French Manufacturing PMI is released and it’s anticipated to increase from the previous 49.3 to 49.6. Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge and usually strengthens the US Dollar if higher than anticipated values are posted. Today’s expected value is 1.6% while the previous was 1.5%.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Before the FOMC Minutes, the pair tested 1.6665 support zone once again but bounced higher and the FOMC Minutes failed to trigger a break of support or a significant move higher.

2014.02.20-Approaching-support-levels-a-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

If the bearish impulse generated by yesterday’s US events cannot take price below 1.6665, we are likely to see higher prices. The pair already tested this support twice and didn’t succeed to break it so another failed attempt would increase the probability of uptrend resumption. Moves lower will shift the medium term balance of power in the favor of the bears only if 1.6600 is broken.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 11:00 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to increase from the previous -2 to 6, a fact which would fuel bullish movement but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market. Of course the US Consumer Price Index will directly affect the pair’s movement.

 
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: BANK HOLIDAYS INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SLOW PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: A weaker than forecast value of the German Ifo Business Climate combined with an increased number of New Home Sales in the United States created bearish price action Friday and took the pair below 1.3650 support.

image0014-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The European Parliamentary Elections which took place Sunday are likely to influence today’s price behavior but the direction or the extent of their impact is hard to determine. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart is showing a mildly oversold condition and this increases the chance of moves north. If this is the case, 1.3650 will most likely act as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Today US Banks will be closed due to Memorial Day and no economic data will be released. As for the Euro, the only event that can affect it is the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi. He is scheduled to speak at 8:00 am GMT in Portugal, at the European Central Bank Forum. Strong moves will be generated, especially if the President will speak about ECB’s next step regarding monetary policy.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Both Thursday and Friday were bearish days and we saw the pair drop all the way from 1.6920 to 1.6820. Price traveled without whipsaws until it finally reached support and volatility subsided due to the end of the trading week.

image0034-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Price showed some rejection off 1.6820 support but it looks like the bulls’ strength starts to fade away from a medium term perspective (four hour chart). The Relative Strength Index is not indicating an oversold condition so a break of 1.6820 is possible today but on the other hand, we might experience a slow day due to lack of economic releases.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Banks in the United Kingdom will be closed today, celebrating Spring Bank Holiday; no economic releases are scheduled for the Pound. Volatility might be thin and irregular movement is a distinct possibility.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: ACTION PICKS UP, BACKED BY ECONOMIC RELEASES

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Volatility for the EUR/USD pair is dropping to almost record lows, making price action slow and choppy. Yesterday US Banks were closed, contributing to the type of movement we mentioned above, but overall we had a bullish day.

image0011.jpg

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair rallied yesterday to touch 1.3650 but we consider this to be just a retracement generated by the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index (Daily and four hour chart) and we believe that price cannot continue much higher. The first hurdle for the bears to overcome is the minor support created at 1.3615 while 1.3650 still holds as resistance, followed by 1.3700.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United States will announce their Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is a major drop from the previous 2.9% to -0.5%. Such a drop, or any lower value, would indicate a slowdown of manufacturing activity and would weaken the US Dollar. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence will be released, with an increase anticipated: 83.2 from the previous 82.3. Confidence among consumers is often an indication of future consumer spending and better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The pair also had a very narrow range yesterday, mostly due to the fact that both U.S. and British Banks were closed. Bulls controlled the day but no special developments took place.

image0021.jpg

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Yesterday’s slow price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues regarding future direction but for the time being, the support at 1.6820 is still holding and the rejection seen here can easily take price into 1.6880 resistance once again. A break of 1.6820 would open the door for a touch of 1.6750 and maybe a full scale reversal of the long term uptrend.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The British Bankers’ Association will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals (previous 45.9K; estimated 45.2K). This is a leading indicator of house market demand because normally a house is purchased with the help of a mortgage; also, houses are usually purchased in times of economic expansion so higher numbers for today’s release are beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE UNITED STATES AS EUROPEAN BANKS TAKE A BREAK

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: German Unemployment rose during the previous month as shown by yesterday’s release, helping the bears to break 1.3615 minor support. Almost the entire day was controlled by sellers and it seems like the bulls’ power is waning almost completely.

2014.05.29-Focus-shifts-on-the-United-St

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The Euro is weakened lately by disappointing economic data and by speculation that ECB might cut rates on their next meeting; all this tilts the balance in favor of the bears and we consider that further downside movement is in order. The first support and target for the pair is 1.3560 and we consider it can be touched today but a lot depends on the US data that is due for release.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

German and French banks are closed today due to Ascension Day so European economic releases will lack completely. However, an important US event takes place: the release of the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which usually has a hefty impact on the US Dollar and can strengthen it if better values are posted. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is -0.6%, a decrease from the previous 0.1%. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced and expected to decrease from 3.4% to 1.1%; if this decrease comes true, the US Dollar will suffer because the housing market is an important part of the US economy.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Pound was affected yesterday by speculation that an interest rate hike is still far away but the technical aspect also played an important role in the sharp drop which broke through support.

2014.05.29-Focus-shifts-on-the-United-St

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The bears dominate medium and short term momentum and extended moves to the downside have a high chance of happening. Nonetheless, we must pay attention to the oversold condition showed by the Relative Strength Index and must be wary of retracements higher which are likely to occur after such a sharp drop as the one experienced yesterday. With that in mind, our bias is negative and we anticipate a touch of 1.6680 support while the previous important support (1.6750) might turn into resistance.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Today is another day which lacks important economic releases for the Pound so price direction will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RETRACEMENTS BUT OVERALL BIAS REMAINS NEGATIVE

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product showed economic slowdown by posting yesterday a value of -1.0%, lower than analysts’ forecast and lower than the previous value. This damped the market’s appetite for the US Dollar and bearish movement came to a stop.

2014.05.30-An-increased-chance-of-retrac

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Although the Dollar was negatively affected by the GDP release, the bulls didn’t manage to make substantial advances and 1.3615 wasn’t broken to the upside. The pair moved slow yesterday, in a 40 pip range, a fact which doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction, but since the bulls couldn’t break 1.3615 even if disappointing data came out for the greenback, the pair will most likely resume downwards movement, making another attempt to touch 1.3560.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Early at 6:00 am GMT the German Retail Sales come out with an anticipated change of 0.4% compared with last month’s -0.7%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of overall German consumer spending and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The bears’ momentum was hindered by disappointing US data and as a result, yesterday’s price action was mixed, with some reversals which were difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames.

2014.05.30-An-increased-chance-of-retrac

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The break of 1.6750 that occurred two days ago tipped the balance of power clearly in favor of the bears and today or in the days to come we are likely to see more downside movement. The Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and this increases the chances of bullish movement but a touch of 1.6680 is very possible.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The entire week has been slow in terms of economic releases for the Pound and today is no exception as no indicators are released. Price action will be mainly affected by the technical aspect of the market.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: INFLATION AND MANUFACTURING DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Friday the bulls made their presence known by taking the pair into 1.3650 resistance. The move was mostly triggered by technical reasons, backed by market indecision due to the approaching of the ECB rate decision.

2014.06.02-Inflation-and-Manufacturing-d

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

For the last couple of weeks the pair’s movement has been sluggish and low volatility was present. The move north seen Friday is not considered an attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair, but rather just a normal retracement in a slow downtrend. If the pair travels above 1.3700, it would signify that bulls still have underlying power and would open the door for further upside movement, but until that happens, the medium term downtrend is intact and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3585.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Germany will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT their Consumer Price Index. The CPI is the prime measurement of inflation and for today’s release a change of 0.1% is anticipated, while the previous value was -0.2%. Higher German inflation is considered beneficial for the entire Euro Zone and hence, for the single currency itself. At 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released and the anticipated value is 55.7, compared with the previous 54.9. Better numbers suggest optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually boost the greenback.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The pair retraced higher Friday but the move was not generated by surprise announcements or by economic data and instead we attribute it to technical reasons.

2014.06.02-Inflation-and-Manufacturing-d

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index signaled in advance a possible bullish move and now price is sitting above the important 1.6750 level. If the bears can manage to take the pair quickly back below this level, the chance of an encounter with 1.6680 support will increase. Otherwise, we are likely to see a touch of 1.6820 in the near future.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to decrease almost insignificantly from the previous 57.3 to 57.1. A bigger decrease than expected would negatively affect the Pound and would allow the pair to travel south. The US indicator mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: INFLATION DATA CLOSELY WATCHED AS THE ECB RATE DECISION APPROACHES

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The Euro was affected yesterday by a worse than expected German Consumer Price Index while the US Dollar benefited from a slightly better Manufacturing PMI, facts which triggered a slow but bearish day.

2014.06.03-Inflation-data-closely-watche
[B][I]
Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

For the time being 1.3650 resistance is holding as seen from yesterday’s bounce lower. The pair continues to have a small range but we are still favoring moves to the downside and a break of 1.3585 en route to 1.3560. It seems like market participants are waiting for the ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate and maybe until it is released, we will not see strong, unidirectional movement.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:00 am GMT and it could be the only reason for increased volatility. As mentioned on other occasions, the ECB is closely watching inflation levels as they are highly correlated with the Interest Rate decision. Today’s forecast is 0.7%, no change from the previous value but a higher number will most likely be beneficial for the Euro.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI showed a value that came close to analysts’ forecast and the impact on the pair was light but price traveled below 1.6750 nonetheless.

2014.06.03-Inflation-data-closely-watche

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Yesterday’s price action was sluggish but some bearish pressure can be seen through the fact that 1.6750 was broken again. This shows that bulls cannot sustain higher prices and that bears might continue downwards price action, with the first target being 1.6680. However, today’s direction might be affected more than usual by British economic data.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is announced and it’s expected to increase from 60.8 to 61.2. The indicator is based on the opinion of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading sign of optimism and economic health so better than expected numbers are beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: PRICE CONFINED IN A TIGHT RANGE. BREAKOUTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair bounced between support and resistance yesterday, following a lower than expected Euro Zone Consumer Price Index value. The session was mostly dominated by the bulls but for the time being, speculation about the ECB decision has a high impact on the market.

2014.06.04-Price-confined-in-a-tight-ran

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The support at 1.3585 is still holding and the same is true for the resistance at 1.3650 as we are experiencing the almost perfect example of a ranging market. Even if support or resistance is broken today, an extended move in the direction of the break has a low probability of occurring as traders seem reticent to commit to either side of the market. The economic data released throughout the day will most likely have a hefty impact.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Today is the first day of the G7 Meetings which are attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. Depending on the matters discussed (which include the Russian – Ukrainian crisis), increased volatility is likely to be present. At 12:30 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing changes in employment numbers. The report is released by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The estimated figure is 217K while the previous number is 220K and usually, higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Construction PMI showed a disappointing value yesterday and reversed an early rally which took price above 1.6750 resistance.

2014.06.04-Price-confined-in-a-tight-ran

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Price is hugging the level of 1.6750 and movement is slow, especially for a major pair. This price action holds no clues for future direction and the same applies to the Relative Strength Index which is moving sideways. Of immediate interest is the current level of 1.6750 and probably the first strong move away from it will dictate the next short term direction.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 8:30 am GMT the United Kingdom releases the Services PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the services sector and based on the opinions of purchasing managers. The expected value is 58.3, a decrease from the previous 58.7 and higher values usually strengthen the Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: A CRUCIAL DAY FOR THE SHARED CURRENCY: ECB EXPECTED TO CUT THE INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The market lacked direction yesterday on the back of mixed economic data released by the United States and as a result neither 1.3650 nor 1.3585 was broken. Trading was difficult on the lower time frames and a lot of direction changes took place.

2014.06.05-A-crucial-day-for-the-shared-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Indecision still governs the pair’s movement and market participants are holding back, waiting for today’s ECB decision regarding the Interest Rate. The major levels to watch are 1.3650 as resistance and 1.3560 as support, followed by 1.3480. Today’s direction will be highly affected by the event mentioned above and the technical side of the market will be secondary.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Without a doubt the day’s main event is the ECB interest rate decision which is scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. The rate is expected to drop from 0.25% to 0.10%, a fact which will most likely be perceived as bearish for the single currency and will generate a huge fall. During the Press Conference, Mario Draghi’s attitude will be closely watched by market participants and his answers to the journalists’ questions will most likely trigger additional movement.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Services PMI released yesterday showed a value very close to analysts’ forecast but the impact favored the bulls who managed to reverse a previous drop and to take the pair into 1.6750 once more.

2014.06.05-A-crucial-day-for-the-shared-
[B][I]
Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

If the pair is going to continue the ranging movement, we are likely to see another bearish move which will encounter support at 1.6700 and at 1.6680. Yesterday’s break above 1.6750 couldn’t be continued by bulls so neither side of the market is in clear control. Today’s fundamental scene will play a very important role and will overshadow the technical aspect.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their Interest Rate but no change is expected from the current 0.50%. A surprise change is not likely and this means that volatility will be increased just briefly. However, whipsaws can occur so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: ECB CUTS RATES. FOCUS SHIFTS ON THE US NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The ECB decided yesterday to cut the interest rate to 0.15% and made a historical move by becoming the first central bank to introduce a negative deposit rate of -0.10%. Following a sharp drop which touched 1.3500 zone, the Euro erased losses and traveled the entire distance back up.

2014.06.06-ECB-cuts-rates.-Focus-shifts-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair’s reaction to the ECB decision is surprising and some analysts speculate that Euro dropped too far, too fast and this fact triggered the consequent move up. However, this is just speculation and the fact remains that ECB introduced a negative deposit rate and dropped the interest rate to 0.15%; these factors are likely to weaken the Euro during the next period and the first lower target is 1.3560 followed by the lowest point reached yesterday: 1.3502.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The day’s main event is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered the most important report regarding job creation in the United States. The impact on the market is a huge one almost always, because employment levels are highly correlated with consumer spending which represents a major part of overall economic activity. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is forecast, from the previous 288K to 212K.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Bank of England left the Interest Rate unchanged, as expected and overall we experienced a bullish day although price made an attempt to break 1.6750 to the downside but failed.

2014.06.06-ECB-cuts-rates.-Focus-shifts-

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The bulls are starting to shift the balance of power in their favor and 1.6820 seems to be the first upside target. On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, a thing which increases the chance of bearish moves but does not nullify the possibility of a break of resistance. Support remains strong at 1.6750.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom has a slow day ahead in terms of economic data but the US employment report will have a hefty impact on the pair and we expect strong movement to be generated by its release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION AS ECONOMIC RELEASES LACK ALMOST COMPLETELY

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Friday was a day characterized by another major whipsaw experienced at the time of the Non Farm Payrolls release. The number of new jobs was close to what analysts had forecast but the market had a mixed reaction.

image0011-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The bullish impulse was reversed in close vicinity of the resistance located at 1.3680 and a big four hour pin bar was printed. This type of candle indicates rejection and a potential move lower which will encounter the first support at 1.3585. A move above 1.3680 will nullify the effect of the pin bar and will make 1.3730 the first target. Considering the latest movement, our current bias is neutral until further developments.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Today French and German Banks are closed in observance of Whit Monday, a fact that will potentially generate irregular volatility and sluggish price action. On top of that, no US economic data is released so the chances of a slow Monday are increased.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Non Farm Payrolls release had a similar impact on the Cable and we saw a move up, countered immediately by the bears; at the moment price is sitting below resistance.

image002-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

For the time being the level of 1.6820 is offering good resistance and rejects all bullish moves. The Relative Strength Index is close to the 70 level and further bullish movement will probably take it into overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move south. If price doesn’t manage to break this level today, we are likely to see a shift of power towards the bears, with 1.6750 support being the next destination.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: BEARS ATTEMPTING TO DRAG BOTH PAIRS LOWER

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The bears stepped in with conviction yesterday and managed to take the pair into 1.3585 support. Major economic releases lacked but price had unidirectional movement for almost the entire day.

image0012-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

It looks like the mixed reaction caused by last week’s ECB decision is starting to wear off and the market is finally choosing a direction. Of immediate importance is the support at 1.3585 which is still not broken decisively and until that happens, the probability of upside moves remains high. The support at 1.3560 is still active but its importance is diminished as recent price action has been influenced more by 1.3585 and 1.3500. The latter is also the next target once the current level is broken.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The French Industrial Production numbers are released today at 6:45 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous -0.7% to 0.3%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of output produced by the industrial sector during the analyzed month and higher numbers suggest economic expansion, thus strengthening the Euro. However, the impact is mild, especially if the real value is close to analysts’ forecast.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The bulls made another attempt yesterday to break 1.6820 but failed and as a result the rest of the day was controlled by the bears.

image0031-1024x477.png

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Lately the pair is trading almost sideways, in close vicinity to 1.6820 resistance and the bulls lack the determination needed to break this level. Considering this, our bias is slightly negative, anticipating a move south that will touch 1.6750 but a lot depends on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 8:30 am GMT the UK Manufacturing Production is released and anticipated to decrease slightly from last month’s 0.5% to 0.4%. Since manufacturing is an important part of Great Britain’s economic activity, better numbers can strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT, an estimate of the UK Gross Domestic Product is announced; the last estimate was 1.0% and values that surpass this figure will strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: BEARS GAIN CONFIDENCE BUT BULLISH RETRACEMENTS ARE EXPECTED

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The bears continued yesterday the momentum which started a day before and successfully broke the support located at 1.3585. The economic data released throughout the day was in line with analysts’ expectations but didn’t have a huge impact on price action.

2014.06.11-Bears-gain-confidence-but-bul

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The sellers are in control of the pair at the moment with both 1.3585 and 1.3560 being broken. Now the support at 1.3500 is the next lower target but on a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is dangerously close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold condition. We expect retracements north which can encounter resistance at the two levels mentioned earlier (broken support may turn into resistance) and once the retracement is complete, bearish price action can resume.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The day ahead lacks important economic releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar so direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect of the market.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing output showed a figure which matched the forecast and the impact on the Pound wasn’t tremendous. However, mostly due to technical reasons, our predicted target of 1.6750 was reached yesterday.

2014.06.11-Bears-gain-confidence-but-bul
[B][I]
Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair paused at 1.6750 support and we are now faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an extreme reading so it doesn’t help a lot in predicting if we will see a break or a bounce; the next levels of interest are 1.6700 to the downside and 1.6820 to the upside but the Pound’s direction will depend a lot on the unemployment data released today.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

AT 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be announced by the UK Office for National Statistics. The indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people who asked for social help during the previous month and usually higher numbers indicate that economic activity has decreased. Today’s forecast is -25.0K, almost unchanged from last month’s -25.1K and the Pound will be weakened if numbers above the forecast are shown.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES: THE DAY’S HEADLINE

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Yesterday the pair traded without clear direction and the bulls made a timid attempt to take price higher but this didn’t result in a break of resistance. No major economic data was released, contributing to the day’s slow movement.

2014.06.12-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-head

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The downtrend is intact but the Relative Strength Index is still moving very close to its 30 level, a fact which suggests an almost oversold condition of the market. This increases the chance of bullish moves which should be considered – if they do occur – just pullbacks in a downtrend, not reversals. Resistance still sits at 1.3560 followed by 1.3585, while the first lower target is represented by 1.3500.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The ECB Monthly Bulletin is released at 8:00 am GMT, revealing the Bank’s outlook concerning future economic conditions as well as information about the statistical data which was analyzed when the interest rate decision was made. The impact of the release varies, depending on the bank’s stance.

Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales come out, showing the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets. Consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of all US economic activity and retail sales make up for about one third of this spending so the impact of the release is usually very high. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared with last month’s 0.1% and under normal circumstances higher figures strengthen the US Dollar.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s unemployment numbers came out better than expected, generating Pound strength and driving the pair higher. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and for the time being support is holding.

2014.06.12-US-Retail-Sales-the-days-head

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The bounce-or-break scenario we mentioned before came to a clear conclusion yesterday as we saw a bounce higher off 1.6750 support. This rejection opens the door for a touch of 1.6820 resistance but this level proved very tough to break during last week and this week as well so once price touches it again, we expect a move south. The US Retail Sales data released today will play an important role in this scenario.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors and by the US Retail Sales.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.[/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA – THE DAY’S ONLY NOTABLE RELEASE

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: Friday bearish movement resumed but price action was not very fast or volatile; however, the pair traveled below 1.3560 and the Euro continued to weaken.

2014.06.16-European-inflation-data-the-d

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Recent price action created minor support at 1.3520 and this will be the first barrier in front of further downside movement but the bearish momentum seems to slow down lately, a fact which signifies that the pair might re-visit 1.3560 resistance. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and it’s rather neutral but Eurozone’s CPI is release today and this can be a deciding factor for the day’s direction.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 9:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Inflation is still a concerning matter and lower values will most likely weaken the Euro, considering the fact that ECB’s inflation target is just below 2.0% and the current CPI is far from this target.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney commented that a rate hike may be discussed sooner than anticipated, a fact which triggered enormous Pound strength and took the pair into the year’s high.

2014.06.16-European-inflation-data-the-d

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Price came within a few pips of a multi-year’s high located at 1.6996, putting the bulls in clear control of the pair. However, this control could be lost if 1.6996 (1.7000) is not broken during the next days and we must note the severe overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart. This increases the chance of a retracement lower which may find support at 1.6920.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and price action will be mainly affected by technical factors.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, POUND REACHES NEW HIGHS. ECONOMIC DATA DECIDES DIRECTION

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair didn’t travel a substantial distance during yesterday’s trading session and 1.3560 resistance was re-visited. Euro Zone’s CPI came out with the anticipated value and the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.

2014.06.17-Euro-in-consolidation-pattern

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

The pair is in a consolidation zone between1.3585 and 1.3520 and a breakout is imminent. The medium term trend is bearish so there’s a higher probability of a break of support than of resistance. If 1.3520 is broken, the next important level is located at 1.3500 followed by 1.3480 while to the upside price will encounter resistance at 1.3650 if 1.3585 will be broken.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

An important German survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT: the ZEW Economic Sentiment. This indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the current and future economic conditions. The forecast is an increase from 33.1 to 35.2, a fact which would strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%, a fact which would be detrimental for the US Dollar since the CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

The Pound continued to climb, fueled by speculation about a potential rate hike performed by the BoE and 1.7000 was breached as a result.

2014.06.17-Euro-in-consolidation-pattern
[B][I]
Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Immediately after piercing the multi-year top created at 1.6996, the pair returned below it, a fact which shows that resistance is still holding and it will take more than one attempt to break it. Also, the Relative Strength Index is starting to descend towards the 70 level, coming from overbought territory, a fact which favors the bears and increases the chance of a touch of 1.6920.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

Price direction will be influenced today by the release of United Kingdom’s CPI which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation is anticipated to drop from the previous 1.8% to 1.7% and if analysts’ expectations come true or even lower numbers are posted, the Pound is likely to lose some steam. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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[size=small][B][I]FOREX NEWS: FOMC RELEASES A CLUSTER OF MARKET-MOVING DATA

EUR/USD[/I][/B]

Forex News: The pair failed to break free of the current consolidation pattern which governs price action despite the fact that German ZEW posted worse than expected values and the American CPI showed an increase.

2014.06.18-FOMC-releases-a-cluster-of-ma

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Some US Dollar strength was seen yesterday at the time of the CPI release, making the pair bounce lower off the resistance located at 1.3585. The downtrend line seen in the picture above created a confluence zone but although all the ingredients for a break of support were present, the pair had a rather slow day. We expect the latest momentum to be continued today and the pair to break 1.3520 support, but a lot depends on the US events released in the second part of the day.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

At 6:00 pm GMT the Federal Funds Rate (not expected to change from the current <0.25%) is announced within the FOMC Statement and will be followed half an hour by a Press Conference which will contain commentary regarding the monetary policy and possibly future rate direction. The FOMC will also release at 6:00 pm GMT their Economic Projections regarding inflation and economic conditions for the next two years. This cluster of events is likely to generate a lot of strong movement and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


[B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B]

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index showed yesterday that inflation dropped more than analysts had forecast and this weakened the Pound. However, the losses incurred were almost immediately recovered, creating a major whipsaw on the lower time frames.


2014.06.18-FOMC-releases-a-cluster-of-ma

[B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B]

Although we saw yesterday some choppy price action, the resistance at 1.6996 is still holding and the Relative Strength Index is moving down, coming from overbought territory. These factors favor a move south, towards the potential support area located at 1.6920. A move above 1.7000 would invalidate the Double Top formation and would resume the uptrend, making 1.7040 the first target.

[B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B]

The Bank of England will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the breakdown of the MPC members’ votes regarding the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to assess the stance of the BoE on the interest rate and to see if the MPC members have a difference of opinion. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by the US events mentioned above.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size]

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