GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 1, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: NEW LOWS REACHED. THE PROBABILITY OF RETRACEMENTS HAS INCREASED EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The Euro was negatively affected yesterday by inflation that continues to decline and this fact, coupled with underlying US Dollar strength, generated another strong move south. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The support at 1.2660 was broken decisively yesterday and the Euro is heading for a 2 year low against the Dollar. It is clear that bears are in control of the pair but a bullish pullback against the main trend is expected, considering the fact that the downtrend is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is trading in oversold territory on more than one time frame. The first support is located at 1.2570 (yesterday’s low), while potential resistance sits at 1.2660. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing will release their version of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is anticipated to remain almost unchanged (206K) from last month’s 204K. This privately owned company releases an early employment report which tries to mimic the Government data which will be announced Friday and the impact differs from month to month but higher numbers are considered beneficial for the US Dollar. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] United Kingdom’s Current Account posted a disappointing value, weakening the Pound and driving the pair lower, in close vicinity of support. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Price is capped to the upside by the resistance at 1.6250 while to the downside support sits at 1.6160. The pair’s last encounter with this support generated a strong bullish move and the same is possible now, but a lot depends on the British Manufacturing data and American Employment. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled downwards, increasing the chances of another push lower. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT but the anticipated change is very small: 52.6 from last month’s 52.5. This is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers lead to a stronger Pound. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 2, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET PREPARES FOR THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was difficult to trade as the ADP Employment data posted better than expected values, causing the US Dollar to strengthen but later in the day it was weakened by a worse than expected value of a Manufacturing survey. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Price moved up and down yesterday without clear direction but we can notice the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still providing good resistance on an hourly chart. It seems like bearish momentum is starting to fade away or at least to decrease in intensity but this can be easily changed by today’s ECB decision regarding the interest rate. The main levels to watch are 1.2660 as resistance and 1.2570 as support but the technical aspect will be secondary. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current value of 0.05% but we saw before that surprises can happen so we recommend caution at the time of the release and during the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later. During the Conference, President Mario Draghi will read a prepared speech and afterwards will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the Press Conference is known to generate strong volatility and often irregular movement, depending on the President’s answers and attitude. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The British Manufacturing data disappointed and the Pound weakened as a result but later in the day price climbed to touch resistance. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The touch of 1.6250 resistance resulted in a bounce lower and overall we had a day which was tough to trade on the lower time frames. The important levels for today still remain 1.6160 as support (which was touched yesterday but price couldn’t break it) and 1.6250 as resistance (which combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone). [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month’s 64.0 to 63.7. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector, regarding the current business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus a higher value is usually beneficial for the Pound. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 3, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN NON FARM PAYROLLS SET THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE FRIDAY EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The ECB Press Conference and Mario Draghi’s attitude generated mixed reactions and a lot of whipsaws. The interest rate remained unchanged and for the time being resistance is holding. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The irregular movement generated by Mario Draghi’s speech took price above 1.2660 resistance but soon after, the Euro weakened and the pair returned below the mentioned level. If the bears will take back control, this is a good place to do so and the first target will be 1.2570. Important US Employment data is released today and this will strongly affect the Dollar, making the technical aspect secondary. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Today the most important American jobs related indicator is released: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people and higher numbers suggest a thriving economy; an increase is also indicative of future growth in the retail sales sector. Today’s release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 216K, a hefty rise from last month’s 142K. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Although British Construction data posted a better value than expected, US Dollar strength took the pair lower for almost the entire day and short term support was broken yesterday. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The current move is likely to extend into the zone surrounding 1.6060 now that previous support was broken and may turn into resistance (1.6160). The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, without being oversold so we are likely to see lower prices especially if the American NFP will show a good reading. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is 59.1, a drop from last month’s 60.5. If the forecast comes true or lower numbers are posted, the Pound will be negatively affected and the pair may descend further. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 7, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE POUND FOR MANUFACTURING DATA RELEASE EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Overall the Euro had a bullish day although the German Factory Orders came out with a disappointing value. Price action was mainly affected by the technical aspect and the bears still have a lot of underlying strength. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index materialized in a bullish pullback against the main trend. However, we consider this just normal market behavior as the downtrend is intact and further descent is likely to occur during the days to come. The current level at 1.2570 may become resistance if we see a bounce lower and the first support is located at 1.2440. [B][I] Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Today Europe and the United States didn’t schedule any major economic releases thus price direction will be influenced mainly by the technical aspect. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The pair had a slow day, a fact also generated by the lackluster fundamental scene. Neither support nor resistance was threatened but price retraced slightly higher. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Price action was slow but bullish nonetheless and this is a fact which we expect to change today and price to make another attempt to reach the important support located at 1.5900. It’s possible to see a touch of 1.6060 before price will make a run for support, considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is coming out of oversold territory. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Manufacturing Production is released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with last month’s 0.3%. Considering that manufacturing is an important part of United Kingdom’s economy, higher values can lead to a stronger Pound. At 2:00 pm GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. Last month’s value was 0.6% and anything above that will most likely strengthen the Pound. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 8, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES MAY SPUR SPECULATION ABOUT A RATE HIKE EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The pair moved above short term resistance, mostly because a stronger retracement was needed taking into consideration the tremendous drop seen throughout last months. A report regarding German Industrial Production showed disappointing figures, slowing the pair’s ascension. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The resistance at 1.2660 was touched several times yesterday but the bulls lacked the strength to break it, a fact which shows the underlying strength of the bears and makes us believe that price will resume downwards motion if today resistance is not broken. The first support is located at 1.2580 while the next resistance (if 1.2660 is broken) sits at 1.2750. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Europe doesn’t didn’t schedule any important news releases but the US Dollar will he highly affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are made public at 6:00 pm GMT. The document will contain insights into the reasons which influenced the members’ votes regarding monetary policy and interest rate but more importantly, it may contain hints about a future rate increase. Such hints would fuel speculation about the US Dollar’s next direction and would influence the pair’s movement in a spectacular fashion. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Similar to the Euro, the Pound slowly climbed above short term resistance. British Manufacturing Production disappointed but we attribute yesterday’s movement to trend exhaustion and to technical factors, not to fundamentals. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The resistance at 1.6060 was broken but now an important confluence zone sits in front of rising prices. This zone is represented by the level at 1.6160 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above both these types of resistance would show that bulls may be preparing to reverse the downtrend. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic or financial indicators for today and we expect mixed movement ahead of the FOMC release. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 9, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE THREATENED. WHAT IS THE ANSWER OF THE BEARS? EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Trading was pretty slow ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the Dollar weakened considerably once the Minutes showed the Fed sees global economic slowdown as a threat to the US economic recovery. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The pair quickly climbed at the time of the FOMC release and 1.2750 resistance was reached. Now price is trading above the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while but this important level acts as a strong barrier. A break of 1.2750 would deal a big blow to the downtrend and we might see an extended move north. If price will have trouble breaking the level, the next destination is 1.2660 and the 50 period EMA. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The G20 Meetings start today and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 3:00 pm GMT in Washington DC. The main subject of the speech will be the latest European developments and, as always, volatility is expected and caution recommended because the Euro can be strongly affected by Draghi’s attitude. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Similar to the Euro, the Pound couldn’t break resistance before the FOMC release but Dollar weakness allowed the pair to move swiftly up and to break resistance. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Currently the pair is trying to move above 1.6160 after breaking 1.6060 in a decisive manner. The market perceived the Meeting Minutes as very bearish for the greenback so we might see more upwards movement today but overall we are still trading in a market with a strong Dollar. Bearish activity is not out of the question although the momentum is in favor of the bulls and we consider a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average a sign of underlying US Dollar strength which may lead to a touch of 1.6060. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate decision. The current value is 0.50% and an increase would add massive strength to the Pound; however, such an increase would be a tremendous surprise considering the fact that Bank of England didn’t offer any hints so far about a rate hike. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 10, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: CORRECTION OVER. DOWNTREND RESUMPTION AHEAD EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take price higher during the early stages of yesterday but the climb couldn’t be sustained and price returned below resistance. Mario Draghi’s dovish attitude and comments weakened the Euro further and added more fuel to the downside. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The move that started at 1.2500 is considered a bullish correction to the main downtrend and it looks like it may have ended. The Relative Strength Index reached overbought territory in a strong downtrend and bulls failed to keep price above 1.2750; these factors combined with the prevailing downtrend make us believe that today we will see a break of 1.2660 which is first potential support. If this occurs, the next level of interest is located at 1.2580. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 6:45 am GMT the French Industrial Production change is released and a drop from last month’s 0.2% to -0.2% is expected. The indicator usually has low or medium impact on the Euro but nonetheless, better numbers can strengthen the Euro. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] As forecast, the Bank of England didn’t change the Interest Rate and the event went almost unnoticed by market participants. The bears dragged the pair lower yesterday after the bulls failed to touch major resistance. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Price is very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if a clear break occurs the next target will become 1.6060 support. A new move above 1.6160 would suggest that bulls have enough strength to take price into the major level at 1.6250; however the Relative Strength Index was close to overbought before yesterday’s drop and this increases the chances of a bigger move to the downside. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] United Kingdom’s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is -9.6B. Since this indicator represents the difference between imports and exports, higher values are beneficial for the Pound. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 13, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: US BANKS ARE CLOSED. IRREGULAR VOLATILITY EXPECTED EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: For almost the entire duration of Friday’s trading session the pair moved south, resuming the direction of the main trend. No major events took place and price direction was mainly influenced by technical factors. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The pair moved below its 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the level at 1.2660, showing the underlying strength of the bears. We expect downside movement to continue today until 1.2580 is reached but price action might be slow due to the fact that US banks will be closed today. To the upside, 1.2660 will act as resistance if touched. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United States celebrate Columbus Day and US Banks will be closed as a result. This may lead lo low volume and potentially irregular volatility. Europe didn’t schedule any important releases and overall we anticipate a slow day. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Although Friday the US Dollar took the pair below short term support, later in the day the Pound managed to erase some of the losses and the day finished above support. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the support at 1.6060 couldn’t be broken and we can even see a four-hour candle with a long lower wick, a fact which shows rejection and suggests that today price may move higher. If this occurs, the moving average will be the first target and also the first point where the bulls may encounter resistance. A clean break of 1.6060 would determine additional sellers to join in. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United Kingdom didn’t schedule notable economic releases for today and US Banks are closed so we might experience a day driven completely by technical factors. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 14, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: TODAY’S HEADLINES – GERMAN ZEW AND UNITED KINGDOM’S INFLATION EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Yesterday Euro bulls managed to take price above first resistance although no major economic or financial indicators were released. The move was mainly technical and it’s not backed by strong fundamentals. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Price moved above 1.2660 resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we can notice the fact that momentum is starting to become neutral as the Moving average is almost flat on a four-hour chart. On an hourly chart we can see that yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at the psychological level of 1.2700 and this will be the first barrier in front of rising prices; a break would make 1.2750 the next target while a bounce lower would take us back into 1.2660. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The day’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, with an expected value of 0.2, a major drop from last month’s 6.9. This survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. Under normal circumstances, a higher than expected number strengthens the Euro and takes the pair higher. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The pair’s movement was rather mixed yesterday and we saw the bulls take price higher just to be reversed in the second part of the day. No major news came out and direction was influenced by technical factors. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] On a four hour chart it’s clearly visible how the pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now it’s struggling to break 1.6060 support. Although the bears still have a lot of steam left, the downtrend is definitely weaker than before so it’s not very clear if this level can be broken and the answer will probably be offered by the British inflation numbers released today. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 8:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and although the current value is not a reason for concern, if inflation will continue to drop, this will become a worrying issue. Today’s expected change is 1.4%, lower than last month’s 1.5%; if this forecast comes true we might see lower prices on the back of Pound weakness. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 15, 2014 [size=medium][I][B]FOREX NEWS: BEARS BACK IN CONTROL. MARIO DRAGHI’S COMMENTS CAN CHANGE THE TIDE EUR/USD[/B][/I] Forex News: Yesterday’s selloff was triggered by a surprisingly low value of the German ZEW survey which is a gauge of optimism among professional investors and analysts. The actual value was -3.6 while the forecast was 0.2 and the Euro weakened as a result. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Following a touch of 1.2750 resistance, price bounced lower and maintained that direction for the most part of yesterday’s trading session. Although the latest momentum belongs to the bears, the resistance at 1.2660 is not broken so we might see some sort of rejection here before price will break the mentioned level. Important events take place today and the pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by them. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] ECB President Mario Draghi will speak twice today: the first speech is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT at a Conference organized by the European Central Bank and the second speech takes place at 6:00 pm GMT at the opening of the European Cultural Days 2014, in Frankfurt. Both events can have a high impact on the Euro but it all depends on what Draghi will say and what his attitude will be. The United States also scheduled an important event: the release of the Retail Sales. Economic activity is highly influenced by the retail sector and usually a higher than expected value for this indicator strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated change is -0.1%, a drop from last month’s 0.6%. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The British CPI disappointed in a tremendous manner, posting a reading of 1.2% while last month’s value was 1.5% and a drop to just 1.4% was forecast. The Pound suffered from this drop and a huge selloff started. [B][I] Technical Outlook[/I][/B] After breaking 1.6060 support decisively, the pair tumbled directly to the next support at 1.5900. The Relative Strength Index reached its 30 level but it doesn’t show a severe oversold condition; however, some sort of pause is likely to be seen here, considering that price traveled too far, too fast. The fundamental scene is packed today so price action will be highly influenced by news releases. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] British employment data is announced today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Claimant Count Change. The indicator shows the monthly change in the number of unemployed people and higher numbers suggest economic contraction, weakening the Pound. Today’s forecast is -34.2K while last month’s number was -37.2K. Keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 16, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY TONING DOWN AFTER YESTERDAY’S STORM EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Yesterday’s price action offered us a huge surprise in the form of a 250 pips rise followed by a massive drop of more than 120 pips. The disappointing numbers posted by the US Retail Sales triggered US Dollar weakness and the initial climb, while the move south that followed is mainly attributed to technical reasons. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Under normal circumstances the massive climb could bring in more buyers but the long wick of the candle signifies rejection and makes the picture unclear. For the moment we recommend caution as the pair’s next direction is uncertain. Yesterday’s high at 1.2886 will act as the first resistance while the level at 1.2750 could provide some support but can also turn into resistance if price moves below it. In this latter case, 1.2660 will become first support. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released and expected to decrease from last month’s 22.5 to 19.9. This is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district and higher than expected numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] British unemployment data was worse than anticipated but the main event of the day was without a doubt the US Retail Sales release which triggered tremendous volatility. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The pair touched 1.6060 resistance and immediately dropped, creating a major whipsaw. For the time being, the downtrend is still in place as we don’t have a higher high but a lower low was printed. For today we expect the pair to remain between 1.6060 resistance and 1.5900 support, but given the latest strong movement, a breakout is possible as well. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so focus will be shifted towards the United States and the technical aspect. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 17, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: MIXED MOVEMENT AHEAD OF YELLEN’S SPEECH AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Yesterday the pair still had a lot of volatility but not as high as the day before and we saw price fall below main support just to return above it soon after. US economic data came out slightly better than anticipated but we couldn’t see major impact at the time. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The support at 1.2750 was pierced but price soon returned above it and this makes the high at 1.2886 the next target for the pair. To the downside, the zone around 1.2750 will still offer some support but a clear close of a four hour candle below it will make 1.2660 the immediate target. We have two important US events today and these will probably determine the day’s bias. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today at 12:30 pm GMT at a Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. As always, her speeches can be a reason for sharp moves and caution is recommended. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually a person confident in the economic situation of the country will spend more. Today’s expected number is 84.3, a small decrease from last month’s 84.6 and lower numbers will have a negative impact on the greenback. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The Pound tried one more time to break support but the bulls took control yesterday and the pair reached resistance once again, so it looks like the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales continues to have a bad influence on the US Dollar. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] If the level at 1.6060 can be broken decisively today, we are likely to see a climb close to 1.6160 and the downtrend will be severely weakened. A break of 1.6060 would also mean that price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which will then offer dynamic support and this would shift the balance on favor of the bulls. Throughout the day, keep an eye for any possible overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index because this would increase the chances of bearish price action. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The Pound will not be affected by major news releases today so price direction will be influenced by technical factors and the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 20, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: A RANGING BEGINNING OF THE WEEK? EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: A survey released Friday by the University of Michigan showed that confidence among American consumers has increased and this brought the pair lower in the second part of the day, on the back of US Dollar strength. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Currently the pair is trading close to the support at 1.2750, above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; because no major news releases are scheduled today and Mondays are usually slow days, we believe that price will not break the two forms of support mentioned above. We expect ranging movement above and below 1.2750, capped to the downside by the Moving Average. Resistance is located in the zone around 1.2835 – 1.2845 but we don’t anticipate a move above the zone. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The German Bundesbank Monthly Report is released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the day’s only notable event. The report contains a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions as seen by the German Central Bank and can strengthen the Euro if it is more hawkish than expected. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] After a brief dip below support, the pair ranged above 1.6060 and overall the day didn’t offer strong moves or important breaks of S/R levels. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Today we expect another encounter with 1.6060 support which in combination with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will create a confluence zone. Since the fundamental scene is pretty calm today, we believe the pair will trade between 1.6060 support and 1.6160 resistance, but a break of any of these levels will most likely trigger an expended move in the direction of the break. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day, so the technical aspect will determine the day’s bias. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 21, 2014 [SIZE="3"][B][I]FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The pair had a slow start of the week and price remained above support but movement was mostly ranging and a lot of indecision was present. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] On a four hour chart we have a few candles with long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, a thing which suggests indecision regarding the next direction. The support at 1.2750 is holding for the moment and price bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which indicate a potential climb into 1.2835 resistance. On the other hand, a break of 1.2750 would open the door for a move towards 1.2660. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released, with an anticipated change from the previous 5.05M to 5.11M. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the last month and an increase usually suggests economic expansion, hence a potentially stronger US Dollar. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The pair also had a slow day yesterday, but movement was mostly bullish and price moved north, in close vicinity of resistance. No major news came out and the technical aspect held center stage. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] As the pair is approaching 1.6160 resistance, a “bounce or break” scenario begins to develop: a bullish break would probably take the pair into 1.6250 resistance while a bounce lower would make 1.6060 the next target. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition but it is moving close to the 70 level and this could make further bullish advances more difficult. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Office for National Statistics will announce at 8:30 am GMT the Public Sector Net Borrowing. A negative number indicates a surplus while a positive figure shows deficit so the Pound would strengthen if a lower number will be posted today. The forecast is 9.3B while last month’s value was 10.9B. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [URL="http://www.gdmfx.com"]best forex broker.[/URL][/SIZE] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 23, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRENGTH PUTS THE BEARS BACK IN CONTROL. RETRACEMENTS EXPECTED EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The US Dollar gained against the Euro and most of its other counterparts as inflation in the United States increased unexpectedly. The pair had a bearish day yesterday and support was touched. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The support at 1.2660 was touched yesterday and price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, things which show that we are trading in a bearish market. A break of the current support zone would make 1.2500 the next target but before that can happen, price will most likely stall around 1.2660. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and this increases the chances of bullish moves. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 7:00 am GMT France will release the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey which shows the level of optimism among purchasing managers regarding the current and future economic conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected number is 48.6 and higher values will most likely strengthen the Euro. Half an hour later, at 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release the indicator with the same name; the forecast is 49.6 and the Euro will be positively affected by a higher number. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The pair traveled south yesterday as the votes on the latest interest rate decision showed that Bank of England officials see risk for the growth of the UK economy. This dampened the appeal of the Pound and triggered and extended bearish move. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Although the support level at 1.6060 was pierced, we didn’t see a clear break. Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this will be the first form of resistance if the pair will bounce higher. Today’s direction will be heavily influenced by the fundamental aspect, making the technical part somewhat secondary. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Retail Sales are released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month’s 0.4% to -0.1%. Since the retail sector is of crucial importance for overall economic activity, a decrease would negatively affect the Pound and would take the pair lower. Usually the Retail Sales release creates strong moves so we recommend caution if trading at the time. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 24, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: UNITED KINGDOM’S GDP AND AMERICAN HOUSING DATA, THE FINAL HEADLINES OF THE WEEK EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Euro strength was seen yesterday once a German Manufacturing survey posted better than expected numbers. However, the pair failed to break resistance and price returned lower later in the day. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Yesterday’s trading session was not characterized by one sided price action and the pair reversed soon after crossing 1.2660 to the upside. There is still a lot of bearish pressure as shown by yesterday’s failed attempt to break 1.2660 resistance but we expect mostly ranging movement today. The first lower level of importance is located at 1.2610, while a move above 1.2660 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would put the bulls in control. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The US Dollar will be affected today by the New Home Sales release scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. Usually people buy a new house in times of economic expansion and this triggers additional expenses (furniture, electronic appliances, etc.), thus higher numbers for today’s release will have a positive impact on the greenback. The forecast is 473K while last month’s number was 504K. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] British Retail Sales disappointed yesterday, triggering a bearish move below support. However, the sellers couldn’t maintain their control over the pair and price moved north later in the day. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The choppy price action seen yesterday paints an unclear picture with long wicked candles which suggest indecision. Resistance sits at 1.6060 while first major support is located at 1.5900 and the day’s direction will be dictated by the value of the British Gross Domestic Product which is the main gauge of an economy’s overall performance. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The release of United Kingdom’s GDP is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 0.7%, a decrease from the previous 0.9%. This would be another blow to British economic recovery and would weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 27, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN BANKS STRESS TESTS RESULTS GENERATE CHOPPY PRICE ACTION EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Friday’s price behavior was influenced by rumors regarding the European Banks stress tests and the bulls reversed an initial move below support. Although price action was choppy, the day and week ended above support. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The pair’s movement will be heavily affected by the European Banks stress tests released Sunday and some irregular volatility might be experienced throughout the day. The important levels are 1.2660 to the downside and 1.2695 (Friday’s high) to the upside. A break of either one would expose the resistance at 1.2750 or the support zone between 1.2620 and 1.2600 and could trigger an extended move in that direction. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The German IFO Business Climate survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT. The importance of this survey comes from its large sample of about 7,000 businesses but also from the fact that it acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. The anticipated value is 104.6 and higher numbers usually have a positive impact on the Euro. The US Pending Home Sales will be released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to increase 1.1% from last month’s -1.0%, a fact which would strengthen the greenback. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] United Kingdom’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product posted the anticipated value Friday but this was interpreted as bullish by most market participants and the Pound strengthened, finishing the week above 1.6060. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Although the pair climbed above resistance, the move doesn’t seem to be backed by strong fundamentals and could be easily reversed. If price moves below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.6060, the first target will be represented by the minor support at 1.6000. If 1.6060 will be successfully tested from above and turns into support, price will head towards the next resistance which is located at 1.6180 but we don’t expect it to travel the entire distance unless surprising events take place. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will announce today at 11:00 am GMT the Realized Sales. This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending because the sales made by wholesalers and retailers are directly influenced by consumers. Today’s anticipated value is 35 and numbers above it usually strengthen the Pound, suggesting increased economic activity. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 28, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE AHEAD. US DATA DETERMINES THE DAY’S BIAS EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Yesterday the pair’s behavior was mainly influenced by the fundamental aspect as we saw a weak Euro once a worse than anticipated value of the German IFO survey was posted, followed by US Dollar weakness when the Pending Home Sales failed to meet analysts’ expectations. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The latest momentum belongs to the Euro bulls on the back of a weak Dollar but on an hourly chart we can note the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory and this may trigger some bearish price action. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is now sitting below price and will offer support if touched from above; the first upper target is located at 1.2750 while support is represented by 1.2620 if the Moving Average is broken. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 12:30 pm GMT the American Durable Goods Orders are announced, showing the change in orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Analysts expect a change of 0.4%, a huge difference from last month’s -18.4% and we believe that any value close to this expectation would strengthen the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT a US Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to change from 86.0 to 87.4. A higher number would also benefit the US Dollar because confidence among consumers is often an indication of increased retail sales in the near future. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The Pound continued to climb higher on the back of a better than anticipated value of the CBI Realized Sales and is now trading above a four-hour 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Overall yesterday the pair moved in one direction, without sharp reversals. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The peak at 1.6180 is considered the pair’s first target and also the first place where the bulls may encounter some resistance. If price will indeed reach this level and the Relative Strength Index will enter overbought territory, the chances of a bounce lower will be increased. To the downside the first support is offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by the level at 1.6060. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so price action will be affected by the technical aspect and by the US indicators mentioned earlier. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 29, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: US MONETARY POLICY IN THE SPOTLIGHT. VOLATILITY INCREASES EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The Durable Goods Orders disappointed yesterday, posting a reading of -1.3% which weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to move straight up into major resistance. Later in the day, an optimistic value of the US Consumer Confidence survey erased some of the greenback’s losses. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] On the hourly chart above, we can note the pair is having some difficulty breaking 1.2750 resistance and on top of that, the Relative Strength Index has reached overbought. Although the overbought condition is not an extreme one, we expect the pair to bounce lower, possibly for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If 1.2750 is broken, the next resistance is located at 1.2835. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The day’s main event is represented by the US interest rate announcement, together with the FOMC Rate Statement, both scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current <0.25% but the biggest market mover will probably be the FOMC statement which will offer hints about future monetary policy and the reasons which stood behind the rate decision. A positive outlook contained by this Statement will most likely strengthen the US Dollar. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained against the greenback and resistance was touched but a break didn’t occur. Overall we had a bullish day, with price controlled by the buyers. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Once price reached 1.6180 resistance, bullish momentum dampened and the action slowed down. Before this level can be broken, we expect small pullbacks lower and if a break will occur, the level needs to be tested from above for the pair to be considered a true one. To the downside, the first dynamic support is represented by the Exponential Moving Average while horizontal support sits at 1.6060. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 9:30 am GMT the British Net Lending to Individuals value is announced; the indicator shows the sum of new credit issued to clients and higher numbers are considered bullish because they indicate a thriving economy where people are confident and willing to spend money. On the other hand, it also indicates that banks are comfortable issuing those loans. The expected value is 2.8B, a decrease from the previous 3.2B and higher than anticipated readings will most likely strengthen the Pound. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted October 31, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: German inflation dropped yesterday more than analysts anticipated and the US Gross Domestic Product increased 3.5% while the anticipated value was 3.1%. Al this generated another bearish push for the pair during the first part of the day but a pullback occurred in the second part. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The bullish move seen yesterday doesn’t seem to have a clear reason and we expect the sellers to continue their assault on support today. The pair is currently testing the level at 1.2620 from below and we favor a bounce lower which will take price in close vicinity of 1.2500 key support. The Relative Strength Index is close to oversold (probably this had something to do with yesterday’s rise) but we don’t consider the position of the RSI something that could fully reverse price direction. However, if 1.2620 is broken to the upside, the next target will be represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The day’s main event is the release of the European Preliminary Consumer Price Index scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. European inflation is a major concern for the ECB as their desired target is just below 2.0% and the current value of 0.3% is considered too low. For today’s release, analysts expect a rise of 0.4% and probably if this value will not be reached, the Euro will weaken, allowing the pair to descend. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Although the pair moved lower when the better than expected value of the American GDP was posted, it soon began to climb, breaking 1.6000 to the upside and overall yesterday price was controlled by the bulls. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Today we expect the bearish pressure to take the pair lower, probably below 1.6000 as the latest move north is considered just a correction. If price continues to move to the upside, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average combined with the level at 1.6060 will provide resistance and the chances of bearish movement will substantially increase if that confluence zone will be reached. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] From a fundamental point of view the entire week has been slow for the United Kingdom and the same is valid for today as no major economic or financial indicators are released. Price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted November 3, 2014 [size=medium][I][B]FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING PMI RELEASES EUR/USD[/B][/I] Forex News: Friday’s session was controlled by the bears and the pair remained below its resistance. This was mostly triggered by the fact that Euro Zone inflation didn’t show any clear sign of improvement, coupled with optimistic US economic data. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Once the pair touched 1.2500 support, it immediately bounced higher, showing signs of rejection; also, the Relative Strength Index is close to the 30 level which suggests a possible oversold condition. These factors make us believe that today we will see a retracement higher before the pair will make another attempt to break 1.2500 support, heading towards 1.2440. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is announced and expected to remain almost unchanged at 56.5 compared with last month’s 56.6. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health, thus higher numbers can strengthen the US Dollar, driving the pair lower. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The pair showed choppy price action Friday as it failed to move away from the level at 1.6000. All moves were quickly reversed and neither side was in clear control. [B][I]Technical Outlook [/I][/B] Friday’s choppy action makes the picture unclear for today and the pair is range-bound below 1.6000. Once price moves away from this level, we can expect a touch of either 1.6060 resistance or 1.5900 support but the direction will be decided by the economic data scheduled for release. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Manufacturing PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT. As mentioned before, the PMI is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and indicates the levels of optimism. A value above the anticipated 51.5 has the potential to strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher and the opposite is true for a value below expectations. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted November 4, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: BEARS MAINTAIN CONTROL AS LONG AS RESISTANCE REMAINS INTACT EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The week opened with a downside gap and on top of that, US Dollar strength generated by a better than expected American Manufacturing PMI took the pair into the support at 1.2440. However, price remained close to 1.2500 for most of the day. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is hovering near the 30 level which indicates oversold and the pair bounced higher after touching the support at 1.2440. Although these are bullish signs, the pair is in a downtrend and the strength still belongs to the bears so further advances to the south are not out of the question but 1.2440 remains the first barrier. To the upside, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can provide resistance, as well as the current level at 1.2500. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The most important event of the day is the US Trade Balance scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT. This indicator measures the difference between imported and exported goods and a negative number suggests that imports exceeded exports; a higher number than the anticipated -40.0B can have a positive impact on the greenback as it shows increased demand for American goods and services. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The British Manufacturing PMI posted a value which exceeded analysts’ expectations but this strengthened the Pound only for a brief moment and the bulls failed to capitalize on the news. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The strength generated by the positive British news found resistance at 1.6000 and the pair started to move lower for the remainder of the day but overall neither bulls nor bears managed to gain a clear advantage. However, the pair remains below resistance, without being oversold so we consider the bias remains bearish as long as 1.6000 is not breached. The first support is located at 1.5900. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Construction PMI is announced today at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to decrease slightly from last month’s 64.2 to 63.5. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers from the construction sector and tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic and business conditions, thus a higher value can strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted November 5, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: FIRST US EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE WEEK COULD SHAKE THE MARKET EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The bulls managed to break resistance yesterday as the Euro gained against a US Dollar weakened by a disappointing Trade Balance. Later in the evening rumors about turmoil within the ECB generated increased volatility and some strong movement. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The pair moved above the resistance at 1.2500 which has now turned into support and the short term bias is bullish. The Relative Strength Index is angled upwards, after being previously oversold and this indicates that further advances can be made, aiming towards 1.2620 resistance. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier in front of rising prices and a place where bullish movement can be reversed. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] Today’s main event is the release of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change scheduled at 1:15 pm GMT. This report is put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the government employment data (NFP) which comes out Friday. A higher number than the expected 214K would strengthen the greenback because increased job creation suggests a thriving economy and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] Yesterday the pair had very slow and choppy price action, with its biggest move happening at the time of the British Construction data release. The worse than anticipated value weakened the Pound but this weakness didn’t last long and the pair continued slowly upwards. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Yesterday’s price action was inconclusive and does not offer a lot of hints regarding today’s probable direction. However, the Relative Strength Index is angled upwards, so we may see a touch of 1.6060 resistance if the bulls manage to keep price above 1.6000. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first barrier and we may see a bounce lower once price touches it; if this happens, we believe 1.6000 will be broken to the downside. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The final British Purchasing Managers’ Index of the week is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services PMI. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers suggest optimism among purchasing managers from the services sector, thus the Pound tends to strengthen. The forecast is 58.5 while last month’s value was slightly higher at 58.7. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted November 6, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: ECB’S RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE SET THE STAGE FOR SHARP MOVES EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday even before the ADP employment data was released and a better than anticipated value for this indicator added fuel to the downwards momentum. The day was controlled by the bears and today we expect further advances. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The level at 1.2500 was broken to the downside and price didn’t even pause before moving past it, showing that the latest move has momentum and that 1.2440 is the pair’s next target. If this support is breached, the next one is located at 1.2280 but probably more than one day will pass before the pair reaches it. Today’s price direction will be mostly influenced by the ECB Press Conference so the technical side will be secondary. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] At 12:45 pm GMT the ECB will announce their interest rate decision, with no change expected from the current 0.05% but the more important event is the ECB Press Conference scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the press conference is usually the one that triggers strong and often irregular movement. Caution is recommended if trading during the Press Conference. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The Pound suffered losses during the first part of yesterday after a worse than expected value of the Services PMI was posted, but most of these loses were erased in the second part of the day, even if the US Dollar strengthened against other currencies. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] Yesterday price bounced between the resistance at 1.6000 and the support at 1.5900, traveling the entire distance down then climbing back up close to resistance. Whichever level is breached first today will probably determine an extended move in that direction but we consider resistance harder to break because the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out at 9:30 am GMT, showing the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. Last month’s value was 0.1% and the forecast for today’s indicator is 0.3%; a higher value would be beneficial for the Pound, taking the pair higher. Later in the day, at 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is anticipated from the current 0.50%. However, caution is recommended as the market can react strongly to speculation about a future rate change. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GDMFX 0 Report post Posted November 7, 2014 [size=medium][B][I]FOREX NEWS: FINISHING THE WEEK WITH A BANG: THE US NON FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT EUR/USD[/I][/B] Forex News: Although the ECB kept rates unchanged at a record low, the Euro weakened yesterday against most of its peers and a sharp fall was seen in our pair when ECB President Mario Draghi commented that additional stimulus measures will be used if needed. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The support at 1.2440 was breached yesterday but price soon retraced for a re-test; if the pair will rebound here, the level will turn into resistance and further down swings are anticipated. The Relative Strength Index is not signaling an extreme oversold situation and momentum belongs to the bears but the US employment report released today will strongly affect the US Dollar and will probably determine the day’s bias. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The main event of the day is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the US Non Farm Employment Change, also known as Non Farm Payrolls. This is considered the most important jobs related data coming from the United States and a higher number can strengthen the greenback substantially as more jobs indicate that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The expected number is 229K, a drop from last month’s 248K. Later in the day, at 3:15 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a Symposium in Paris; audience questions are expected and volatility can increase so caution is recommended. [B][I]GBP/USD[/I][/B] The Bank of England decided to keep rates unchanged as expected but the pair had similar behavior to the EUR/USD and price moved into support after bouncing at resistance. [B][I]Technical Outlook[/I][/B] The 50 period Exponential Moving Average combined with the level at 1.6000 offered enough resistance for price to bounce lower and to maintain that direction for almost the entire day. On the other hand, the level at 1.5900 couldn’t be broken and we saw the pair pause there so we can’t consider either side to be in clear control. On top of that, today’s technical aspect will be secondary as the US employment data will hold center stage. [B][I]Fundamental Outlook[/I][/B] The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price direction will be mainly affected by the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market. Source of article from the [url=http://www.gdmfx.com]best forex broker.[/url][/size] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
